316
FXUS65 KTFX 180214
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
814 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front moves south through the area tonight, producing
  scattered rain and snow showers.

- A seasonable day expected on Saturday, before wind, rain and
  snow return on Sunday.

- A slow warming trend, with mostly dry conditions expected next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...

A cold front continues to move south into central MT this evening
in association with a clipper type system tracking east across
the Canadian Prairies. A wind shift to the north or northwest is
occurring for a period as the front passes with temperatures
falling to the 30s. Showers are concentrated near the front and
sagging south across central MT late this evening and should
continue across southwest MT early in the overnight period. Main
impact from all of this is the potential for brief periods of
reduced visibility in locations where precipitation is more
intense and/or changes briefly to snow before ending, however
road and air temperatures look to remain warm enough to limit any
accumulation or impacts to road surfaces. Hoenisch

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 554 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

An upper level disturbance will move southward through the CWA
overnight tonight. Gusty winds ahead of this disturbance will
diminish behind the cold front. Expect about a 20 degree drop in
temperatures behind the cold front as well. Scattered rain showers
will develop behind the cold front, with the rain changing to snow
overnight. This system is quick moving, so most lower elevation
locations will only see some minor snow accumulations, mostly on
grassy areas or bridges. In the mountains an inch or two of snow
is possible.

For Saturday, expect the area to be in between storm systems, with
mostly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected.

For Saturday night through Monday, the next upper level low
approaches MT from the west Saturday night, increasing winds along
the divide and out over the adjacent Plains. There is the
potential for strong winds over the western portions of North
Central MT at this time. By Sunday morning, snow develops in
Glacier Park and then slowly moves southward along the divide and
across Southwest MT. Snowfall will be a bit heavier with this
system, with a general 2 to 4 inch snowfall possible in the
mountains. There will be a few isolated higher amounts at ridge
tops in Glacier Park. Most of the precipitation exits the area by
late Monday morning.

Tuesday through Friday...A slow warming trend is expected for much
of next week, along with mostly dry conditions. Afternoon
temperatures could be near 10 degrees above normal by late next
week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

For the cold front tonight...a few heavier rain/snow showers could
develop behind the cold front. The heavier showers will be brief,
but could impact driving visibility for a short time.

For the winds on Sunday, the model forecast wind gusts have
increased quite a bit since yesterday. The GFS model is the
strongest, and quite strong as well. The GFS model has winds of
near 70 mph just above ground level over Great Falls and near
90 mph just above ground level over Cut Bank. Should the GFS model
pan out, this could be a very high wind event for much of North
Central MT. Overall, right now, there is an 85 percent chance of
wind gusts over 60 mph in the Cut Bank area. Thus the high wind
watch for the Cut Bank area continues. Additionally, the high wind
watch could be expanded south/east a bit more if the GFS model
pans out.

Additionally, the probability for wind gusts near/over 75 mph
have increased along the Rocky Mountain Front, thus this area was
added to the high wind watch as well.

The probability for 2 inches of snowfall in the mountains Sun thru
Mon is near 80 percent along the Rocky Mountain Front and up to 60
percent in the mountains around Big Sky. There is the potential
that a winter statement might be needed for this event. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
18/00Z TAF Period

A cold front moving south across the area will reach KGTF by
01z, KHLN to KLWT between 02z and 03z and KBZN between 03z and
05z. Winds shift to the north with the frontal passage with a few
showers ahead of the front and more concentrated areas of showers
with and following the frontal passage through this evening.
Brief MVFR conditions can be expected in/near showers with enough
cooling occurring behind the front to mix or change precipitation
briefly to snow, though no accumulation is expected at terminals
and even visibility reductions will be brief. Gusty surface winds
diminish overnight following the frontal passage but southwest
surface winds re-develop and increase across the area again
Saturday. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  55  44  59 /  60   0  20  30
CTB  26  51  38  54 /  30   0  20  40
HLN  32  54  39  56 /  60   0  20  80
BZN  27  52  35  56 /  60   0   0  80
WYS  20  45  26  47 /  50   0   0  70
DLN  27  54  34  56 /  20   0   0  60
HVR  28  55  35  60 /  60   0  10  30
LWT  27  51  34  58 /  80   0  20  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening
for East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Southern High
Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening
for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern
Toole and Liberty.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls