898
FXUS65 KTFX 030527
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1027 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry and mild weather through the upcoming week.

 - Gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front Thursday through
   Friday night.

 - Patchy fog possible during overnight and early morning hours,
   mainly impacting the SW valleys and areas near bodies of water.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 803 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026/

Evening satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies across the area
under a dry northerly flow aloft downstream of an upper level
ridge centered over the Northern Rockies. There is some potential
for patchy fog development overnight where winds are lightest,
including some southwest MT valleys as well as areas along the
Milk and Marias river in north-central MT. Hoenisch

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 803 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Overall, weather will be mild and dry through the upcoming work
week. The main concern will be gusty winds along the Rocky
Mountain Front Thursday through Friday night.

An upper-level ridge develops over the region today and remains in
place through Tuesday, resulting in dry and mild weather. The
upper-level ridge weakens and collapses over Tuesday night as a
weak cut-off upper-level low tracks east across Utah and Colorado.
No major weather shifts are expected from this low, although there
will be cooler weather on Wednesday compared to Tuesday. Weak
upper-level ridging develops over Wednesday night, but quickly
begins deteriorating and shifting eastward over Thursday.
Following the movement of the ridge, an upper-level trough begins
moving eastward into the region and bringing southwesterly flow
aloft. As a result, winds pick up along the Rocky Mountain Front
but gusts are currently expected to remain under 40 mph. As the
trough continues its eastward movement, winds will increase and
shift westerly over Thursday night. The upper-level pressure
gradient compresses over Friday and remains compressed through
Friday night, resulting in increased winds along the Rocky
Mountain Front and central MT with gusts up to 60 mph. There is
the potential for showers Thursday through Friday, but showers
currently look inclined to remain west of the divide.

Looking towards Saturday and beyond, a new upper-level ridge
begins to establish itself. Likely leading to a continuation of
mild and dry weather. Winds decrease over Saturday, but areas of
breezy winds will remain possible. -ESH

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Winds exceeding 60 mph Thursday night through Friday night...

Thursday Night: 25% chance for gusts to exceed 60 mph for the
Rocky Mountain Front.

Friday: 30% chance for gusts to exceed 60 mph for the Rocky
Mountain Front.

Friday Night: 55% chance for gusts to exceed 60 mph for the Rocky
Mountain Front. 20% chance for gusts to exceed 60 mph along the
eastern slopes of the Little Belts. -ESH

&&

.AVIATION...
03/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail throughout this TAF period, with the
exception of KWYS which may see LIFR conditions through 13Z due to
early morning fog development. Surface winds will generally be
light and variable, and cloud cover will begin to increase around
00Z. -Dzomba

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  30  56  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  24  49  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  25  48  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  23  46  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  15  45  19  50 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  22  45  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  26  49  28  43 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  25  53  30  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls