183
FXUS65 KTFX 030959
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
359 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few light showers over North Central MT today, otherwise it
  will be a bit warmer.

- Showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, but turning dry Friday
  and into the start of the weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Saturday afternoon and then
  continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:
A slow moving upper level low will slowly start to drift eastward
across southern Canada today. Expect a few light showers over
North Central MT, otherwise Southwest MT should be mostly dry and
sunny.

For Thursday, an upper level disturbance will move from west to
east across the CWA. The disturbance will arrive in the morning,
thus the chance for strong storms is low. Most of the
precipitation will exit the eastern portions of the CWA by early
evening.

Weak shortwave riding develops for Friday and Saturday morning.
This will allow for dry and warm conditions to develop over the
CWA. Afternoon highs will be close to 10 degrees above normal on
Friday.

For Saturday afternoon into early next week...an unstable
southwesterly flow will develop over the CWA. This will result in
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to move through the
CWA. At this time, most of the severe storms should be to our
east, but an isolated strong/severe storm is possible. Overall,
temperatures will be a bit above normal most days, except on
Sunday, when temperatures are likely to be a few degrees below
normal.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
With warm air moving in aloft today, the forecast models want to
keep the CWA dry. However, with recent moisture, the airmass is
likely to become a bit unstable with any heating over North
Central MT, thus kept low pops in the forecast, especially for
areas along the Highway 2 corridor from Shelby to Harlem.

There is the potential that a few strong storms could develop over
the eastern portions of the CWA on Saturday, but they should
quickly move off to the northeast. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
3/12Z TAF Period.

There is a small chance for some patchy fog over Central/Southwest
MT this morning. Otherwise, just a few isolated showers are
possible today over North Central MT. Expect clearing skies over
night for much of the CWA. Mountains/passes will be obscured until
this evening over North Central MT. Brusda

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The latest hydrographs show river levels decreasing over the
southwestern portions of Glacier County. This includes the Two
Medicine River and Badger Creek. Thus if no new reports of
flooding are received this morning, it is likely the flood
advisory for southwestern Glacier County will expire at Noon
today, or even be cancelled early. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  68  48  72  45 /   0  30  50   0
CTB  65  45  69  42 /  20  10  20   0
HLN  76  50  73  44 /   0  50  40   0
BZN  76  45  73  42 /   0  30  50   0
WYS  73  37  70  36 /   0  10  10   0
DLN  76  45  73  42 /   0  40  10   0
HVR  68  42  74  45 /  20   0  40  10
LWT  68  43  68  42 /   0  10  80  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls