770
FXUS65 KTFX 310545
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1145 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures through Saturday before a cooldown Sunday through
  the first half of next week.

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions Saturday and Sunday bring criitical
  weather conditions across the region.

- Wildfire smoke continues to impact the region through the end of
  the week.

- Dry conditions settle in into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

The upper-level ridge pattern continues Friday which will bring
another day of hot temperatures to the region. Drier PWATs and
little forcing Friday will keep most of the region dry, but I can`t
rule out a few showers and thunderstorms in Southest MT during the
afternoon. Temperatures peak on Saturday as the ridge breakdowns
and southwest flow increases. Lower elevations are forecasted to
reach into the 100s across north-Central MT and the upper 90s in
Southwest MT. The ridge breakdown also brings an increase in 700mb
winds through Sunday, peaking late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning to 60-70kts along the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front. As a result, strong winds develop along the Rocky Moutnain
Front windy conditions develop elsewhere Saturday and Sunday. This
with the combination of hot temperatures and low relative
humdiity creates concerns for elevated to critical fire weather
conditions (see FIRE WEATHER section).

A mostly dry frontal passage Sunday will help bring a relief in
the heat through the first half of next week. Northwest fllow
aloft will help keep temepratures down throguh Tuesday, before
very warm temperatures return. Low moisutre throughout the week
will keep conditions dry.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Heat this Weekend:

There remains good confidence in imapctful heat setting up Saturday
across the region, especially North-Central MT. Based on recent
temeprautre trends this week wiht the wildfire smoke, the NBM may be
running up to few degrees too hot for Saturday. However, there is
good confidence for widespread temepratures in the 100s across North-
Central MT Saturday. Therefore, the current heat products remain on
track.

Winds Saturday and Sunday:

Models have been consitstent on the increase in winds and the timing
of peak winds. There is a 30-60% chance for 60 mph winds along the
immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front. Although this
is a typically windy region, it will be unusually windy for the time
of year, as wind gusts exceed the 95th percentile for August.
Therefore, these wind speeds are more imapctful for the time of
year. The main imapct will be for outdoor recrecreation,
particualry for Glacier NP and those traveling in high profile
vehicles. -Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
31/06Z TAF Period

A few showers and thunderstorms will slowly diminish through 09Z
across the region. A few more instances of gusty and erratic winds
near these decaying showers or thunderstorms will be a concern
before activity fully diminishes.

Looking ahead to Friday, wildfire smoke will continue to be around,
but the primary impact looks to be slant-range visibility, with
surface visibility looking to remain in the VFR range. A few
thunderstorms near the Idaho border cannot be ruled out late Friday,
but confidence in impacts at KWYS was too low to warrant mention at
this time.

For KGTF: Aside from a rogue outflow boundary the remainder of the
evening, light winds look to persist through at least the late-
morning hours Friday. Northwesterly winds look develop by early
afternoon, though the magnitude of wind looks to remain 10 kts or
less. The probability that this northwesterly wind results in a
15+kt cross wind Friday afternoon is less than 10%. -AM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions is expected Saturday
afternoon through Sunday evening across North-Central, Central, and
Southwest Montana. On Saturday, hot temperatures in the upper 90s to
near 108 degrees will combine with minimum RH values as low as 8%
and frequent gusts of 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.
Higher gusts are expected along the Rocky Mountain Front to create
the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Sunday will
be cooler but low RH values and stronger winds than Saturday are
still expected which will still pose a significant concern not
only for ongoing fires but any potential new starts that occur. A
Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Saturday afternoon
through Sunday evening across all of North-Central, Central, and
Southwest Montana. -thor/Wilson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  95  60  96  61 /   0  10   0   0
CTB  92  54  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  94  59  95  61 /  20  40   0   0
BZN  93  56  94  58 /  20  40   0   0
WYS  85  45  88  47 /  10  20   0   0
DLN  89  53  90  56 /  20  70   0   0
HVR  96  58  97  57 /  10  20   0   0
LWT  91  58  92  59 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
night for Cascade County below 5000ft-Eastern Pondera and
Eastern Teton-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest
Areas-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-Eastern
Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-Helena and
Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-Hill and
Blaine Counties-Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain
District-Rocky Mountain Front-Lincoln Ranger District of the
Helena National Forest.

High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and
Central Pondera-Northern High Plains.

Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus
County below 4500ft-Western and Central Chouteau County.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls