688
FXUS65 KTFX 071344
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
744 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Cooler with scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms
   today.

 - Risk of frost across portions of southwest and central Montana
   tonight.

 - Dry and seasonably warm conditions Monday will be followed by
   another period of unsettled and cooler weather Tuesday through
   Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...

Morning update has been published, with the main change being to
adjust PoPs to better match latest radar trends (i.e. increase
PoPs across Central and North Central Montana) through the late
morning hours. Otherwise the remainder of the forecast is on
track, with strong and gusty southwest to west winds expected
along the Rocky Mountain Front and across portions of Southwest
Montana, generally along and southeast of a Monida Pass to Big Sky
line. - Moldan

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 533 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026/

A fairly potent shortwave pivots across the Northern Rockies
today through the base of an unseasonably cool upper level
trough/low lifting out into AB. A round of more widespread sowers
moves through as the shortwave and colder air aloft move into the
region, primarily this morning, with a showers lingering across
eastern portions of the forecast area and along the continental
divide into this afternoon. Snow levels sill look to fall to
around 6000 ft by late this morning, which could result in some
wet snow with little or no accumulation across some mountain
passes, including MacDonald Pass and Kings Hill.

Gusty west winds developing behind the shortwave and afternoon
temperatures mainly in the 50s today will feel unseasonably cool for
early June. Partial clearing tonight and lighter winds across
southwest MT will allow for efficient cooling and overnight low
temps are likely to reach the lower 30s there and mid 30s to
around 40 across the plains where breezy winds will persist
tonight.

Monday will be mainly dry with temperatures returning to seasonal
levels. An unseasonably strong upper level jet across the North
Pacific sends a series of shortwaves into the NW US within a
broad upper level trough that shifts across the Northern Rockies
and MT Tuesday through Thursday. This will bring daily chances for
showers and possibly some thunderstorms with temperatures again
trending below seasonal averages. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
07/12Z TAF Period

Showers and isolated thunderstorms tracking across portions of
central MT early this morning will progress east through the late
morning and afternoon. Expect a period of MVFR conditions with
this activity across central/north-central MT with more
isolated/brief conditions across SW MT terminals. Gusty west to
northwest winds develop behind this activity at most terminals
today with breezy/windy conditions persisting tonight across
north-central MT terminals.Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  36  71  49 / 100  10   0   0
CTB  57  35  67  44 /  50  10   0  10
HLN  58  34  71  49 /  90  10   0  20
BZN  60  30  71  46 /  80  30   0  10
WYS  63  26  66  37 /  30   0   0  40
DLN  61  31  70  45 /  30  10   0  30
HVR  61  37  73  47 /  80  20   0   0
LWT  55  32  70  45 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls