887
FXUS65 KTFX 250942
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
342 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be warm and windy today.

- A cold front moving through the area this evening will bring in
  cooler air for Saturday, with light snow possible in the
  mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms possible over Southwest MT by
  Sunday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:
The first fall cold front will move from west to east across the
CWA this evening. Ahead of this front, expect very warm
temperatures and gusty west winds to develop this afternoon. At
this time, record high temperatures are not expected for most
locations today. Expect strong west winds, falling temperatures as
the cold front moves through. There is even the potential for a
few thunderstorms along the Highway 2 corridor from Browning to
about Havre this evening. The high wind watch was changed to a
high wind warning. The strong winds should diminish by sunrise on
Saturday.

As colder air moves into the CWA, the rain will change to snow for
elevations generally above 5000 feet by Saturday morning. Most of
the precipitation will have exited the CWA, but some showers will
likely remain along the divide, thus do expect some minor snow
accumulations in the mountains along the divide, including
Glacier Park on Saturday morning.

Much of the area will then remain dry but with cooler temperature
Saturday afternoon into Sunday. By Sunday evening, an upper level
disturbance will move into Southwest MT. Expect a few scattered
showers/thunderstorms to accompany this disturbance. Overall, most
of this precipitation will only affect Central/Southwest MT, with
areas over the northern portions of North Central MT likely
remaining dry.

A brisk westerly flow aloft will remain over MT for much of next
week. This will result in seasonable afternoon temperatures for
much of next week. Additionally, another period of fairly strong
winds is expected Tue night into Wed over North Central MT.

By next weekend, the GFS/EC have opposite solutions, thus
confidence in the forecast for next weekend is low at this time.


 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Main concern in the short term will be the potential for strong
winds this evening as the cold front moves through. There is a 90
percent chance of wind gusts over 55 mph at times in the warning
area this evening.

It is possible a few severe thunderstorm warnings could be issued
between Cut Bank and Havre this evening, as the strong winds mix
down with showers/thunderstorms moving through.

Any impactful snowfall on Saturday morning will mostly likely be
confined to roadways above 6000 feet over the Northern Rockies,
which will mainly just be the Going to the Sun Road, in Glacier
National Park. A short winter statement is possible for this
event. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
25/12z TAF Period.

Expect increasing clouds and a gradual increase in surface winds
this morning. It becomes windy this afternoon, with strong surface
winds likely over the western half of North Central MT late this
afternoon/evening. A cold front will move from west to east across
the CWA this evening, resulting in a few thunderstorms. Strong
winds diminish by Sat morning. Rain changes to snow along the
divide, obscuring mountains.

Additionally, prescribed burns between Lincoln and Helena are
producing smoke that will obscure mountains at times in this area
today. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  88  49  64  39 /   0  20   0   0
CTB  83  43  57  33 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  85  43  66  41 /   0  10   0   0
BZN  81  42  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  70  32  59  33 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  79  39  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  89  48  66  36 /   0  20   0   0
LWT  84  45  67  37 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT Saturday
for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern
High Plains-Southern High Plains.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls