916
FXUS65 KTFX 011752
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1152 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of strong winds today through Sunday afternoon.

- Mild afternoon temperatures today, then a return to more
  seasonal temperatures starting on Sunday.

- Some light rain or snow showers is expected at times over the
  next week, with the best chance for precipitation in the
  mountains.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 809 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025/

800 AM... It will be windy and warm today across North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana with some locations across
North-central Montana approaching record highs. Along the divide
across North-central Montana there will be rain at lower-
elevations and snow on mountain peaks this afternoon through this
evening. It will be dry elsewhere across North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana. For the update, high temperatures across
North-central Montana were increased to better reflect the latest
model guidance and current observations. The rest of the forecast
is on track. -IG


530 AM...winds are gusting over 70 mph in northern Liberty County
this morning. Thus this area`s start was adjusted to the current
time. Brusda

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 809 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
An upper level trof is going to slowly move across MT over the
next few days. Even though the trof is slow moving, very strong
winds will occur aloft. The strong winds will mix down at times
over North Central MT today through Sunday afternoon. Currently
there is a chinook arch over the entire CWA, but this arch is
expected to break down by early afternoon, allowing for the strong
winds aloft to mix down. Afternoon temperatures today will be
mild, with a few locations near record highs. On Sunday, the upper
level trof will be pushing to our east, allowing for cooler air to
move back into the CWA. The strong winds should diminish by late
Sunday afternoon.

For Monday through next Saturday...the overall weather pattern
will be a brisk westerly flow aloft. Upper level disturbances will
move from west to east across the area, producing short periods of
windy conditions and some precipitation. Overall the strongest
winds during this period look to be on Friday over the western
portions of North Central MT. In terms of precipitation, overall
it will be light. The westerly flow aloft will limit the
precipitation intensity east of the divide. Unless you are in the
mountains, just a few hundredths of precipitation is expected with
the passing showers. In the mountains, a few tenths will fall each
system, but at this time nothing significant. With temperatures
cooling, there will be snow mixed in at all elevations, especially
during the overnight and morning hours.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The main concern over the next few days is the strong winds later
today through Sunday afternoon. There continues to be an 80
percent chance or higher for winds gusts over 55 mph over the
Plains of North Central MT and the valleys of SW MT today thru
Sun, while over an 80 percent chance for 75 mph wind gusts along
the Rocky Mountain Front. Thus all remaining high wind watches
were changed to high wind warnings. The strong winds could also
result in some areas of blowing dust at times later today and into
Sunday. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z TAF Period

Westerly flow across the Northern Rockies and MT will continue to
increase with 10000ft MSL speeds peaking around 50-70kts across
much of the area overnight. Mountain wave turbulence at at least
localized areas of low level wind shear will remain a concern
through the TAF period. Surface wind gusts in excess of 40kts will
become widespread later this afternoon at most N-central MT
terminals with periods of stronger gusts persisting through the
overnight period. Winds shift from southwest to more westerly
overnight with the passage of a front. A period of lower VFR cloud
bases and some mountain obscuration near scattered showers may
accompany the front as it moves through southwest MT late tonight
through early Sunday morning. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  42  52  30 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  67  36  48  26 /  20  10  10   0
HLN  67  40  52  28 /   0  30  20   0
BZN  64  39  54  25 /   0  10  30   0
WYS  48  28  47  26 /   0   0  30   0
DLN  63  40  53  26 /   0  10  10   0
HVR  72  39  55  25 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  69  41  52  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MDT Sunday for East Glacier Park
Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-
Eastern Toole and Liberty-Northern High Plains-Southern High
Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MDT Sunday for Bears Paw Mountains
and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-
Cascade County below 5000ft-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-
Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and
Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Madison River
Valley-Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Western
and Central Chouteau County.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls