649
FXUS65 KTFX 031139
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
439 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Leftover snow showers end early this morning.
 - Next weather system arrives Friday, bringing widespread snow
   with heaviest in Southwestern Montana.
 - Active weather pattern continues next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 359 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025/

In the wake of a departing upper level shortwave trough and as
ridging builds just offshore the West Coast, northwesterly flow
aloft will set up across the Treasure State today. This setup will
bring a drying trend to the area today, with any leftover snow
showers early this morning winding down before or shortly after
sunrise this morning with skies gradually clearing through the
remainder of the day.

Clouds will be quick to return on Thursday, however, as a weak
surface low treks through Alberta and Saskatchewan and moisture
aloft begins to make a return. While Thursday will be dry,
precipitation will return to the area on Friday as a disturbance
coming over the ridge makes its way into the Northwestern US.
While most areas will see at least some snowfall on Friday, the
heaviest snowfall will be found generally south of a Great Falls
to Lewistown line to the Idaho border, where snow is likely to be
a bit more persistent as high pressure sets up across the plains.
Warmer air aloft will continue to produce snow across southwestern
Montana into the day on Saturday, especially over the higher
terrain where snowfall totals could approach a foot by Saturday
evening.

As we look into next week, a fairly active weather pattern looks
to continue as the upper level ridge to our west weakens a bit and
a parade of weather systems push into the Northwestern United
States. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
03/12Z TAF Period

Snow will continue to wind down at KLWT and KGTF through the next
hour or two, but low clouds will be a concern at most TAFs this
morning with IFR to LIFR conditions expected. Low clouds should
begin to break up by 15 or 16z, and VFR conditions will prevail
afterwards. Until then, widespread mountain obscuration is
expected. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  33  24  37  22 /   0   0  30  30
CTB  29  21  34  19 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  33  21  37  24 /   0  10  40  40
BZN  32  14  34  20 /   0   0  40  50
WYS  29   9  24  14 /   0  10  80  80
DLN  33  18  36  21 /   0   0  10  30
HVR  22  10  34  17 /   0   0  20  20
LWT  32  18  36  21 /  10   0  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for
Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and
Castle Mountains-Cascade County below 5000ft-Elkhorn and Boulder
Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial
Mountains-Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Judith Basin
County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Snowy
and Judith Mountains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for
Fergus County below 4500ft.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls