070
FXUS65 KTFX 090555
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1155 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy, very warm, and dry conditions generally continue for
  the next few days.

- A passing weather system and increased moisture will introduce shower
  and thunderstorm activity and cool temperatures down Wednesday
  through Friday, particularly for northern areas.

- There will be daily scattered shower and thunderstorm
  activity and warming temperatures next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Ridging aloft will maintain the hazy, very warm, and dry
conditions for at least the next few days. The main area of
instability and associated shower and thunderstorm activity will
generally stay north of the Canadian border during this period.
Seasonably breezy conditions will continue with surface boundaries
bringing transient gusty northerly wind shifts, mostly over
central/north-central MT.

A trough begins to move southeastward through BC/AB and into the
Northern Rockies sometime Wednesday into Thursday. There are some
disagreements with the evolution of this system, but PWATs look to
rise towards the three quarter to one inch range by late
Wednesday into Thursday according to the North American Ensemble
Forecast System (NAEFS). Shower and thunderstorm activity looks to
increase from north to south with areas along the Hi-Line seeing
scattered showers and storms as early as Tuesday evening. The
Wednesday night through Thursday time period is generally favored
to see the most widespread rainfall, especially for north-central
areas. While some areas may see beneficial rains and cooling
temperatures, the convective nature of this activity may also
bring some strong to severe storms with localized strong gusty
winds, hail, and heavy downpours. With that being said, ML CAPE
doesn`t looks overly impressive at this point with values
generally maxing out between 300 and 800 J/kg.

The ridging aloft begins to build back in heading into next
weekend, but another trough approaching the Pacific NW coast will
bring southwesterly flow aloft within striking distance of the
Northern Rockies. This will result in temperatures warming back
up, along with daily shower and thunderstorm activity. - RCG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Breezy conditions, shifting winds, and localized elevated fire
concerns...

The combination of very warm, dry, and breezy conditions will
cause localized fire weather conditions for the next couple of
days. While wind gusts will generally be below the 20 to 25 mph
threshold, surface boundaries will bring daily northerly wind
shifts, most notably over central and north-central MT. Afternoon
humidity will fall to or near critically low levels with only
moderate to poor overnight recoveries, driest over Southwest
Montana. There are no plans for fire weather highlights at this
time; however, those working to contain ongoing fires should
beware of dry conditions and breezy, shifting winds.

Increased shower and thunderstorm activity and cooler
temperatures Wednesday through Friday...

There has been ensemble disagreements and poor run to run
consistency for this time period. The primary question is how far
south this trough will go, which will determine how widespread the
showers will be and whether temperatures cool below average. In
addition to this uncertainty, there are also timing discrepancies
with a growing number of members shifting the most widespread
precipitation to Thursday into Friday rather than Wednesday into
Thursday. The cooler solution would support more beneficial
wetting rains over central and north-central MT while the warmer
solution would support more scattered precipitation, but with
increased instances of stronger storms capable of localized strong
wind gusts, hail, and heavy downpours. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
09/06Z TAF Period

Main impact will be visibility reduced by smoke over
Central/Southwest MT through the period. IFR visibility is
expected at times, especially over Southwest MT. Mountains/passes
will be obscured across the CWA through the period. Do expect some
surface wind shifts over North Central MT over the next 24 hours,
but with light winds, impacts will be minor.

KGTF: Winds will be light and variable over the next 24 hours.
Main impacts will be the shifting winds from time to time.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  86  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  50  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  57  88  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  53  87  52  91 /  20   0   0   0
WYS  44  85  44  86 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  52  85  52  89 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  55  86  52  88 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  55  83  51  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls