520
FXUS65 KTFX 110147
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
647 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - It will be warm and mostly dry through Thursday with
   precipitation returning to the mountains Thursday evening
   through Friday.

 - It will be windy this afternoon through this evening with the
   strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west
   of I-15.


&&

.UPDATE...

Strong cross barrier flow continues this evening, though with lack
of daytime heating and associated mixing, strong winds gusts have
become more isolated. A few more instances of strong winds and
gusts are forecast along the immediate eastern slopes of the
Southern Rocky Mountain Front as well as in the Geyser area
through the evening and early overnight. The High Wind Warnings
continue for these two areas, while remaining High Wind Warnings
for areas further north set to expire at 9 PM have been cancelled
early. While a few more stronger gusts will be around along the
Northern Rocky Mountain Front this evening, they will be far too
isolated/sporadic to warrant continuing the High Wind Warning.

The forecast was updated with the latest guidance and tuned to
latest observations. -AM

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 437 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Monday afternoon/evening the upper-level ridge flattens associated
with an upper-level shortwave. This combined with strong low and mid-
level winds will bring a period of gusty winds to North-central
Montana with the strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and
plains west of I-15 this afternoon and evening. This evening a
surface cold front will move through and bring light precipitation
to the Rocky Mountain Front. This will bring another round of strong
winds to the Rocky Mountain Front and northern Judith Basin County.
On Tuesday an upper-level ridge builds back in over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This upper-level ridge will
remain over the area through Thursday and bring warm and mostly dry
weather to the area Tuesday through Thursday afternoon. Tuesday
through Thursday there will be upper-level shortwaves that move
through the upper-level flow which will bring periods of breezy
winds.

Thursday evening an upper-level trough associated with a surface
cold front moves towards Montana. This will bring windy conditions
to the area with the strongest winds in north-south oriented valleys
of Southwestern Montana. The upper-level trough will remain over
North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Friday. This
will bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to the area
Thursday evening through Friday. On Saturday an upper-level ridge
begins to build in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. This upper-level ridge will remain over the area on Sunday.
This will allow temperatures to warm up on Sunday with cool
temperatures and mountain precipitation on Saturday. IG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

On Tuesday there is greater than a 40% chance for wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph across most of North-central Montana. The HREF (hi-
resolution ensemble forecast) has greater than a 50% chance for wind
gusts of 55 mph or greater and a 50% chance for sustained winds of
35 mph or greater through tomorrow morning. As a result a High Wind
Warning was issued for northern Judith Basin which continues until 5
AM tomorrow morning. See the section below for details.

On Thursday there is a 30 - 50% chance for sustained winds of 40 mph
or greater across the north-south orientated valleys of Southwestern
Montana. On Thursday there is a 30 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 55
mph or greater across portions of Southwestern Montana. On Thursday
there is greater than a 60% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or
greater. Thursday afternoon/evening through Saturday morning there
is a 40 - 70% chance for snowfall of 4 inches or greater across the
Madison and Gallatin Mountains. IG

&&

.AVIATION...
11/00Z TAF Period

Primary concern this TAF period will be for mountain wave turbulence
in addition to lingering gusty surface winds, mostly over the
plains. A weak wind shift from a cold front will move across the
region this evening and tonight, but largely does not pose many
impacts. Some mountain obscuration will be around along the Rocky
Mountain Front this evening before diminishing later tonight.

A few instances of LLWS will be around this evening where surface
winds diminish beneath still potent winds just above the surface,
most likely near the Rocky Mountain Front.

Breezy surface winds will be a concern again Tuesday developing mid
morning through early afternoon. -AM

The KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations
resume next spring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  59  33  61 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  36  53  27  53 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  41  57  36  60 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  34  59  32  60 /  10   0   0   0
WYS  23  46  25  50 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  33  56  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  34  56  26  51 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  38  56  32  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for Judith Basin County
and Judith Gap-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls