141
FXUS65 KTFX 030515
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1115 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures persists through Wednesday, with a cool down
  expected Thursday and Friday.

- Mostly dry conditions are expected through the work week, with
  daily chances of showers and thunderstorms moving in for the
  weekend.

- Wildfire smoke from Canada will continue to plague the region
  today and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 814 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025/

No major changes were made to the going forecast. Smoke and haze
will continue to the impact much of the region over the next 24
hours with minor degradations in air quality expected.  -thor

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 814 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

The upper-level ridge parked over the Pacific Northwest will keep
the region mostly dry through the work week and hot temperatures
this afternoon and Wednesday. However, there will be isolated
terrain-induced showers/a rogue thunderstorm this afternoon. A
weak front pushing south from northern MT this afternoon will
bring down smoke and haze from Canadian wildfires through
Wednesday. There will be a relief in the heat on Thursday, as a
cold front pushing through will drop temperatures to below normal
through Friday. This front is expected to mix down gusty winds to
the surface on Thursday.

As we head towards the weekend, a digging trough out towards the
Pacific will bring a southwest flow aloft pattern. Although the
position and strength of this trough remains uncertain, models
hint at there being enough moisture advection and lift to provide
afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the beginning of next
week.Temperatures warm a little bit to near to slightly above
normal during the weekend and the first half of next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

For winds on Thursday, there`s a 30-50% chance for 34kts wind
gusts across the region. Farther east towards central/eastern
Blaine County, the chances increases to 60-90% chance. This
coincides with where the stronger mid/low level jet is forecasted
to be. In terms of fire weather conditions, minimum relative
humidities and the energy release components in fuels don`t look
to be critical for red flag conditions. However, the gusty winds
will bring an elevated fire weather risk to any new fire starts.

For precipitation this weekend and beginning of next week,
nothing stands out in terms of severe weather chances or abnormal
rainfall amounts with precipitation. Though, we will continue to
monitor trends for stronger storms as we get closer. -Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
03/06Z TAF Period

A Northwest flow aloft continues across the Northern Rockies and
MT with just some scattered high clouds streaming through the
area. Areas of smoke/haze from wildfires upstream in Canada will
degrade visibility to low-VFR ranges at times at most terminals
with a period of MVFR visibility likely through this morning at
KCTB. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  89  56  72 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  49  87  55  69 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  92  59  76 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  51  90  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  39  82  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  51  87  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  50  80  56  70 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  50  82  54  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls