342
FXUS65 KTFX 311654
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1054 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Patchy fog is possible this morning along the Milk River Valley.

 - Above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions are
   expected through the rest of the Labor Day weekend.

 - Wildfire smoke may impact air quality at times across portions
   of central and southwest Montana today and tomorrow.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 830 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025/

Today it will be warm and mostly dry across North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. For the update Pops this
afternoon were slightly increased across North-central and
Central Montana to reflect the latest hi-res model guidance. The
rest of the forecast is on track. -IG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 830 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridging will continue through Tuesday allowing for near
to above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions to
continue across the region. By Wednesday into Thursday a strong
upper level low starts to move down from Manitoba into the Great
Lakes region which will compress and shift the ridge to the west.
This will allow for some slightly cooler temperatures through the
end of the work week. Overall, dry conditions are expected, however,
an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. By
next weekend the low moves further east allowing for the ridge to
start to flatten a bit which will lead to increasing chances for
precipitation, particularly across southwest Montana.


 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

A combination of wildfire smoke from Washington, Idaho, and Montana
will filter across central and southwest Montana today and tomorrow.
Currently, the worst of the near-surface impacts are expected this
morning where the main concern will be degraded air quality.

There are hints in the latest run of the HRRR-smoke that some
wildfire smoke from Canada may make a push south tomorrow afternoon.
However, at this time, the greatest impacts are expected east of our
area.  -thor


&&

.AVIATION...
31/18Z TAF Period.

Upper level ridging building in over the Northern Rockies will
bring VFR conditions throughout the 3118/0118 TAF period; however,
smoke/haze from local and regional wildfires will generally limit
VIS to between 6-10SM. Biggest impacts from the smoke/haze will be
reductions in slantwise visibility upon ascent/descent. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  88  55  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  51  88  52 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  87  57  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  85  50  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  77  38  79  38 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  82  47  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  82  55  84  53 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls