082
FXUS65 KTFX 021055
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
455 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warmer today with breezy afternoon winds.

 - An extended period of warmth and dryness is expected through much
   of the upcoming week with temperatures peaking on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 207 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

A zonal/westerly flow aloft across the Northern Rockies and MT will
support warming and drying across the area today as primarily mid-
high level cloud-cover thins this afternoon with most lower
elevation locations reaching maximum temperatures in the 70s. Breezy
west to southwest winds are expected this afternoon thanks to deeper
atmospheric mixing while surface troughing also develops in response
to an approaching weak upper level shortwave disturbance that tracks
east along the US/Canadian border tonight. A somewhat cooler
airmass with lighter winds and surface high pressure slides across
the area Saturday behind the shortwave.

Upper level ridging amplifies across the SW US later this weekend
through early next week, providing an extended period of above
average warmth and dryness with temperatures peaking 15-20F above
seasonal averages on Monday. A flatter zonal flow redevelops mid-
late next week for continued dryness and mild temperatures before
potential upper level troughing moves in next weekend.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The warmest and driest conditions of this forecast period are likely
to occur on Monday with afternoon temperatures as warm as the lower
to mid 80s which would be within a few degrees of daily records
at a few locations. In addition, breezy to locally windy
conditions are likely Monday afternoon, which combined with the
associated warmth/dryness could elevate fire weather concerns for
some areas. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...
02/12Z TAF Period.

Mid to high level cloud-cover streaming across the region this
morning will thin this afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing.
Surface winds from the west to southwest will increase at most
sites late this morning and become gusty this afternoon. Winds
diminish and turn a bit more northwesterly this evening with some
mid-level clouds moving south into north-central MT late tonight.
Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  78  46  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  71  40  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  76  43  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  76  41  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  68  33  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  77  41  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  77  41  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  77  45  67  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls