918
FXUS65 KTFX 222323
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
523 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Near seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures will
   continue through the next week.

 - Periods of haze expected across southwest Montana through the
   weekend due to wildfire smoke.

 - Chance for showers and thunderstorms next week, primarily
   across southwestern Montana.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 156 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Northwesterly flow will persist across the region through the
weekend allowing for near normal temperatures and generally dry
conditions. Towards the start of next week monsoonal moisture will
start to make its way into the region allowing for daily chances
of showers and thunderstorms, especially across southwest Montana.


 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wildfire Smoke in Southwest Montana:

The latest guidance from the HRRR smoke model continues to push
smoke both from local and regional fires across southwest Montana.
As a result, hazy conditions are expected to persist through at
least Saturday although with the worst of the smoke expected to
stay aloft, surface-level impacts are expected to be relatively
minor.


Precip Chances Next Week:

Monsoonal moisture is expected to reach southwest Montana Monday
into Tuesday which will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Right now model guidance points towards a mix of
wet and dry thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday with relatively lower
PWAT values. As the week progresses, PWAT increases signaling the
potential for wetter thunderstorms towards the end of the week.
There is still a bit of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm
coverage and the finer details of how this event will play out.
-thor


&&

.AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF Period.

Some patchy fog development is expected near the KWYS area
between 23/09 and 23/15Z and wildfire smoke may reduce slantwise
visibility over Southwest Montana at times. Otherwise, dry
northwesterly flow aloft will generally bring widespread VFR
conditions and east to northeasterly surface breezes. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  44  77  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  49  85  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  44  85  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  37  83  38  82 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  44  85  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  46  78  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  45  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls