845
FXUS65 KTFX 141905
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
105 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Gusty winds today, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front
   and north central MT.

 - Areas of showers at times through Monday night, the potential
   for showers/thunderstorms then return Thursday afternoon
   through Saturday.

 - Beginning Thursday, widespread warmer temperatures are
   expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

As the upper-level low continues its easterly track out of the
region, it will be followed by a weaker upper-level ridge. This
ridge will bring a period of milder winds and overall drier
conditions MOnday night through Wednesday night, although areas of
showers can`t be ruled out. As a weaker upper-level low moves
easterly into the region Thursday afternoon/evening, it is
expected to bring widespread shower and thunderstorm potential.
The low will continue to track easterly through the region over
Friday and Saturday, which will allow for the potential of showers
and thunderstorms to continue. An upper-level ridge will follow
this upper-level low, bringing warm, dry, and milder weather on
Sunday and Monday. -ESH

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Main concern will be strong wind gusts over 55 mph today. Fergus
county continues to have the highest potential (areas of 70%<
chance of 24 hr max wind gusts at or above 55 mph), so it
continues to have a High Wind Warning until 6 pm MDT.

For the shower event beginning Thursday afternoon/evening and
continuing through Saturday, highest totals are expected in the
southern half of the region (around 50% chance of rain totals .25"
or above between Thursday 6 AM- Saturday 6 AM MDT).

Current time period for highest thunderstorm probability is 12 pm
Friday-12 am Saturday MDT, 20-35% chance across the region. -ESH


&&

.AVIATION...
14/18Z TAF Period

Scattered showers across Central and North-Central MT will
continue throughout this afternoon, dissipating early this
evening. Winds will increase early this afternoon, with widespread
gusts around 30 kts across most terminals, with around 40 kts
near KCTB. The winds will begin to decrease later this evening,
around 01-02Z for most terminals except KCTB and KLWT, which will
see winds decrease closer to 05Z. Mountain obscuration will occur
during this TAF period, especially around lingering showers.
While ceilings will begin to rise for the Southwest MT terminals
this evening, they will remain on the lower side for the Central
and North-Central MT terminals. -Dzomba

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  64  45  59 /  10   0  20  20
CTB  41  57  42  57 /  20  10  70  10
HLN  40  69  45  65 /   0   0  10   0
BZN  36  71  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  26  66  30  72 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  34  72  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  41  66  45  65 /  20   0  70  10
LWT  39  65  41  61 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Fergus County
below 4500ft-Snowy and Judith Mountains.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls