575
FXUS65 KTFX 040528
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1128 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through at least
   the middle of next week.

 - There will be the potential for areas of elevated fire weather concerns
   on Monday due to breezy winds and low relative humidity
   values.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 522 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

The upper-level ridge will continue its slow eastward movement,
allowing for an extended period of dry and warm conditions for
Montana. A weak shortwave on Monday will cause breezy winds in
central and northern MT with the breeziest winds impacting the
Northern Rocky Mountain Front. Due to lower RH values (<25% for most
of the region) occurring at the same time as the breezy winds,
there will be the potential for areas of elevated fire weather
concerns.

As the upper-level ridge builds back up, there will be areas of
breezy westerly winds on Tuesday. Beyond that, the upper-level ridge
will keep winds mild across the region through Thursday. Although
temperatures remain unseasonably warm, there will be a cool off of
around 5-10 degrees on Tuesday. Temperatures then remain fairly
consistent through at least Thursday as the upper-level ridge
continues to impact the region.

Although the temperatures continue to be warm on Friday, it looks
like it could be the transition day for a pattern shift in the
weather due to an upper-level low developing over the PNW.
Conditions then look wetter and cooler during the weekend, with even
the potential for some minor mountain snow accumulations. However,
confidence still remains low in this scenario due to the amount of
time until Friday and the weekend. - ESH

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

There is high confidence in temperatures reaching the low 80s across
many lower elevation locations on Monday with some locations,
including Great Falls and Helena, expected to get within 5 degrees
of the daily record. -thor

For elevated fire weather concerns in north and central Montana
Monday afternoon, there is a 70% chance or greater for sustained
winds greater than or equal to 15 mph and RH (relative humidity)
values of less than or equal to 25%. However, due to fuel condition
not being critical, products are not being considered at this time. -
esh

Regarding the potential pattern shift next weekend, there have been
some runs of both the GFS and ECMWF that have pointed towards
mountain snow with an occasional run suggesting even some lower
elevation snow in Southwest Montana. Because there is still a bit of
a "windshield wiper" effect going on between model runs, with one
run being more robust on the snow potential and the next one taking
it away, it is highly recommended that folks take any mention of
snow with a grain of salt until we get closer to next weekend. A
pattern shift towards cooler and wetter conditions is possible, but
confidence in any one scenario is low. -thor

&&

.AVIATION...
04/06Z TAF Period.

VFR and dry conditions prevail through the TAF period with clearer
skies settling in for most of the TAF period. The risk of
reduction of visibility from smoke trapped under the inversion at
KHLN remains low throughout the nighttime, though I can`t rule out
a few dips in visibility. -Wilson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  36  71  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  42  78  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  39  78  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  31  74  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  41  80  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  37  74  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  41  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls