773
FXUS65 KTFX 040537
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1137 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warm and smoky today.
 - A cold front will push through the area on Thursday, bringing
   cooler temperatures and less smoky air into the area.
 - Unsettled over the weekend and through next week with
   afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected most days.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 830 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025/
Current forecast is on track, no updates planned for this evening.
The main impacts overnight will be smoke moving southward from
Canada into North Central MT. Visibility could fall to around 3
miles at times. Additionally, expect a wind shift to the north by
Thursday morning over North Central MT with winds gusting between
30 and 40 mph at times out of the north. Brusda

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 830 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

An elongated upper level ridge over the far Western US will
gradually weaken over the next few days, first allowing cooler and
less smoky air to push into the area from Canada tomorrow before
allowing some moisture to work into the area over the weekend. As
the cooler and less smoky air works into the area tomorrow behind
a cold front, expect some breezy winds along and behind the front,
with a few gust to 30 mph expected in the late morning and early
afternoon, especially in North/South oriented valleys and across
the plains east of a Havre to Lewistown line. While this will
bring some elevated fire weather conditions to the area, the
cooler temperatures that will accompany the winds should help keep
fire danger in check.

Beyond tomorrow, Friday will be a cool and dry day before some
moisture starts to work in from the southwest and west. Any
showers on Saturday will be limited to near the MT/ID border, and
will spread into the higher terrain of Southwestern Montana on
Sunday. From there, moisture will slowly make its way further
north and east through the following days, with scattered showers
possible area wide by Tuesday.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Biggest area of uncertainty is that the current forecast shows
no/minimal shower activity along the cold front tomorrow morning,
though a few high resolution models are showing a thin band of
rain along the cold front. Even if this does fall, impacts from
the rain should be minimal with accumulations less than a
hundredth of an inch or so, though this could be a bit higher in
some of the upslope areas. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
04/06Z TAF Period.

The main concern for this period will be smoke and a wind shift
to the north. Smoke continues to move southward from Canada with
visibilities less than 6SM possible at times, especially over
north-central MT. Winds will become northerly this morning as the
cold front passes through with gusty winds possible across north-
central MT. Mountains/passes will be obscured by smoke across the
area through the period.  Brusda/thor

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  69  41  72 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  55  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  58  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  52  78  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  40  76  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  50  78  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  56  68  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  53  66  38  67 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls