387
FXUS65 KTFX 080505
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1005 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Strong winds will continue across north-central Montana

 - Generally dry conditions will persist through the middle of
   next week with above normal temperatures expected by Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 701 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025/

A sharp upper shortwave and associated surface low are moving from
far SW SK into NE MT this evening. Northwest surface winds behind
this system remain gusty this evening, largely east of US-87, and
are forecast to increase for areas in southern Blaine and Fergus
counties later this evening as precipitation helps translate
strongest winds aloft to the surface. A High Wind Warning remains in
effect for portions of the the plains through 5 AM Saturday.

While a mix of light rain and snow at lower elevations near Blaine
county and vicinity remains this evening, it is forecast to quickly
diminish as forcing moves out after midnight. Areas in the Bears Paw
are most likely to see light snow accumulations by Saturday morning.

Minor updates were made to the forecast this evening to account for
latest trends. -AM

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 701 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Windy conditions will continue across north-central Montana
through the rest of the day as the shortwave continues to move off
to the east. Rain showers across Hill and Blaine county will start
to transition to snow after sunset and continue through the early
morning hours on Saturday. After this system moves through,
generally dry conditions will persist across the region through
the weekend into the middle of next week. Additionally,
temperatures will start to warm up as upper level ridging builds
back and lingers through Wednesday. During this time passing
shortwaves may bring periods of windy conditions with the next
opportunity looking to be the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

High Wind Warnings continue through the afternoon for western
portion north-central Montana and into the overnight hours for
the eastern portion of north-central Montana. Sustained winds of
30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph are possible across the
northern plains with the potential for locally higher gusts
possible.

Regarding the chance for snow in the Bears Paw tonight, confidence
is holding that the mountains could receive up to an inch of snow.
Snow at the lower elevations of Blaine county will be a little
more hit or miss. Accumulations are generally expected to stay
under half an inch and the main impacts will be slippery roads
Saturday morning. Otherwise there are no major impacts are
expected so no products are needed at this time.  -thor

&&

.AVIATION...
08/06Z TAF Period

The primary concern this TAF period will be for gusty winds in the
vicinity of KHVR and KLWT through early Saturday morning. Elsewhere
across North-central and Central Montana surface winds are lighter,
resulting in marginal low-level wind shear. Winds aloft decrease
early Saturday morning, which will slowly diminish the LLWS threat.

Otherwise the only concern is for some lingering low clouds in the
KHVR vicinity, which look to hang around through mid-morning
Saturday. -AM


The KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume
next spring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  49  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  28  47  21  54 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  47  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  21  44  19  51 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  11  38  11  45 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  19  43  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  26  49  19  48 /  40  10   0   0
LWT  27  45  22  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for Bears Paw
Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill
County-Northern Blaine County.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls