625
FXUS65 KTFX 031951
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
Issued by National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1251 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -Generally milder and drier conditions prevail for much of the
 workweek, but a weak front will bring slightly cooler
 temperatures on Wednesday.

-Patchy fog development will increase over the next couple of
 nights over the plains and southwest valleys.

-Passing weather systems will bring periods of breezy to windy
 conditions heading into the weekend and early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Ridging aloft looks to bring general mild and dry conditions for
much of the upcoming workweek; however, there will be a weak
frontal passage that brings a cooler low level easterly flow
tonight into Wednesday. The effects of this will be mostly felt
over the plains where there looks to be some nighttime and early
morning patchy fog development and a slight cooldown. There will
also be some patchy fog over some of the southwest valleys during
this time, especially the colder high valleys along the MT/ID/WY
borders. Otherwise, temperatures will mostly run a few degrees
above average for most locations and there will be localized
breeziness.

Strong westerly flow aloft becomes established over the Northern
Rockies during the second half of the week. The first of a series
of fast moving zonal shortwaves will bring an initial round of
breezy to windy conditions Thursday into Friday. This will be
followed by additional systems parading through the forecast area
during the weekend. Ensembles are having some difficulty resolving
the timing and strength of each system, but they do agree that
the Rocky Mountain Front and plains will be the recipients of the
strongest winds. With ridging generally remaining the most
influential weather feature, despite the elevated westerly flow
and shortwave passages, temperatures look to remain above average
and precipitation will generally be spotty and confined to
mountain areas. - RCG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Patchy Fog Wednesday morning

Latest Hi-Res Ensemble Forecast (HREF) guidance supports a low,
10-30%, chance for visibilities to fall below one quarter of a
mile along the Hi-Line from Cut Bank points east through Blaine
County from midnight tonight through late Wednesday morning. The
probabilities are highest in the Milk River Valley from Fresno
Reservoir points northwest into southern Alberta. BUFKIT soundings
for locations along the Hi-Line do support the potential for fog
given very dry air just above the boundary layer and light winds
within the boundary layer; however, current thinking is that fog
will be patchy in nature, with the densest fog being located near
local waterways (i.e. Milk River, Marias River, Fresno Reservoir,
Lake Elwell). Given the expected patchy nature of the densest fog
we are currently not anticipating the need for any Dense Fog
Advisories, but will continue to monitor the situation. - Moldan

High Winds Possible at Times from Thursday Through the Weekend
Uncertainty still exists with the timing of individual waves and
where the core of strongest mid-level winds will be throughout the
timeframe, with a significant spread in wind gusts between the
ensemble members of the GFS (stronger) and ECMWF (weaker). With
that being said, NBM probabilities continue to support the periods
from Thursday evening through Friday evening and then from Sunday
morning through Sunday evening for the potential of high winds,
most notably along the Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

.AVIATION...
3/18Z TAF Period

Excluding a few exceptions, VFR conditions will generally prevail for
much of the TAF period. The low-level clouds at KWYS are expected
to lift with ceilings around 5000ft by 18Z, allowing for the
return of VFR conditions. The other concern will be patchy low-
level clouds and or mist potentially developing after 04/04Z for
KHLN, KWYS, KBZN, and KHVR, which could result in a period of
MVFR/IFR conditions. Any low-level clouds and or mist are expected
to clear or lift by 04/16Z.

&&

The table below lists the NBM5.0 probabilities for wind gusts to
exceed 55, 65, and 75 mph at select locations across the plains of
Central and North Central Montana over the aforementioned
timeframe.

Thursday PM thru Friday PM Wind Gusts Probabilities
LOCATION               > 55 mph | > 65 mph | > 75 mph
East Glacier              80%   |    55%   |    10%
Browning                  85%   |    65%   |    25%
Cut Bank                  60%   |    25%   |    <5%
Havre                      5%   |     0%   |     0%
Great Falls               25%   |    <5%   |     0%
Lewistown                  0%   |     0%   |     0%

                    Sundays Wind Gusts Probabilities
LOCATION               > 55 mph | > 65 mph | > 75 mph
East Glacier              50%   |    35%   |    10%
Browning                  55%   |    40%   |    20%
Cut Bank                  40%   |    35%   |    15%
Havre                     15%   |    <5%   |    <5%
Great Falls               10%   |    <5%   |    <5%
Lewistown                 <5%   |     0%   |     0%

- Moldan

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  48  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  27  48  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  27  48  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  26  43  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  19  50  19  42 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  25  45  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  28  43  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  30  46  29  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls