389
FXUS65 KTFX 081710
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1110 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with near normal temperatures Today.

- An active, cooler week forecasted.

- Gusty winds develop along the Rocky Mountain Front Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 441 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

As the main trough axis moves off to the east, an area of high
pressure moves into the region. As a result, there will be dry
conditions Monday, with temperatures near normal. There will be a
concern for frost across North-Central MT with some Southwest MT
valleys having a concern for a hard freeze this morning. Tuesday
through Thursday, an upper- level trough will impact the region.
This will bring on and off precipitation over that time frame.
Southwest flow Tuesday will advect in weak instability, which
will allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop. Cold air aloft
working it`s way down will cool temperatures to below normal
Wednesday. Snow levels falling as low as 6,500ft Wednesday morning
will allow for light snow to fall at the higher mountain peaks.
700mb winds increase along the Rocky Mountain Front late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Gusty winds will develop along the
Rocky Mountain Front and North-Central MT.

After that system exits, another wave tries to move into the region.
Models do diverge a little bit this weekend, but generally it looks
to trend more active with temperatures near to slightly below
average through the beginning of next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Models do have the 700mb jet increasing to 40 to 50kts late Tuesday
into Wednesday morning along the Rocky Mountian Front. These winds
do spread a bit farther out to Central MT on Wednesday, spreading
out the gusty winds to the east. However, probabilities for high
winds is low, with up to a 20 to 40% chance for 50 mph winds
across North- Central MT and a 60% chance at Judith Basin County.
Along the Rocky Mountain Front there`s a 40-60% chance for 58 mph
wind gusts Wednesday.

It seems like the best area to get precipitation is Southwest MT
where they have a 40-70% chance for 0.5" of precipitation Tuesday
through Thursday. Everywhere else, there is generally between a
30 to 70% chance for 0.1" of precipitation during this time
frame. -Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
08/18Z TAF Period

Low-VFR/VFR conditions are expected through the entire 0818/0918
TAF period, with the exception of the KWYS terminal where MVFR
conditions are expected beyond 09-12z Tuesday. CIGS will begin to
lower through the evening hours tonight from southwest to
northeast as moisture overspreads the Northern Rockies, with
precipitation chances increasing across Southwest Montana between
03-09z Tuesday and Central and North Central Montana between
06-15z Tuesday. Mountains will become increasingly obscured
beyond 03z Tuesday. - Moldan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  72  49  70  46 /   0   0  30  10
CTB  68  46  65  43 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  72  50  68  45 /   0  10  80  10
BZN  72  48  67  38 /   0  10  90  90
WYS  65  37  55  29 /   0  70 100  90
DLN  70  47  66  37 /   0  30  50  50
HVR  73  48  75  46 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  70  46  68  41 /   0   0  60  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls