576
FXUS65 KTFX 141700
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1100 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Forecast and Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warm temperatures will continue across southwest Montana today
   while a strong cold front starts to make its way in from the
   north bringing cooler temperatures to north-central Montana.

 - Showers and thunderstorms will start along the Hi-Line by the
   late afternoon and become more widespread across the region by
   Tuesday morning.

 - Cooler temperatures and a widespread chance for rain will
   continue across the region Tuesday through Wednesday.

 - Return to more seasonable temperatures and dry conditions by
   the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Update forecast is out. Only adjustment was to the afternoon
temperatures over North Central MT. The cold front was just north
of Great Falls at 1030 AM, and pushing southward. The front will
stall a bit over the mountains south of Great Falls before
pushing southward again this evening. Showers/thunderstorms will
develop late this afternoon and evening near the Canadian border,
then push southward overnight. Tuesday will be the wet day, with
many areas over North Central MT having periods of rain during the
day. Expect the precipitation to be more scattered over Southwest
MT on Tuesday, along with a few thunderstorms. Overall, no
changes to the QPF forecast, with most areas of North Central MT
having a rainfall of 0.50 to 1.00 inch rainfall, while rainfall
will generally be less than 0.50 inches over Southwest MT. Tuesday
will also be an unseasonably cool day across the CWA. Brusda


&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 532 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Over the next couple days an upper level trough will make its way
across the state of Montana bringing a chance for widespread
rain and even some high-mountain snow. Temperatures today will be
the dichotomy of warmth across the southwestern portion of the
state while the northern portion of the region starts out warm
before a strong cold front makes its way into central Montana by
the overnight hours. The first wave of precipitation will start
this evening as showers and thunderstorms fire off across the Hi-
Line and gradually become more widespread by early Tuesday
morning.

Rain, heavy at times, will continue through most of the day on
Tuesday with the potential for snow showers above 8000ft. Rain
will slowly taper off from northwest to southeast on Wednesday as
the trough starts to exit the region by Wednesday evening.

Behind the trough, quasi-northwest flow will help moderate
temperatures Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon. This
gradual warmup will be slowed by an incoming shortwave that
arrives Thursday afternoon and brings another chance for more
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Behind the
shortwave upper level ridging starts to build over the weekend
allowing seasonable temperatures and dry conditions to return to
the region.


 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Severe Weather Potential Today:

Similar to what occurred late Sunday night with storms coming down
into Canada and making their way across the northern portions of
the Hi-Line, a similar set up is expected this afternoon and
evening ahead of the cold front. There is currently a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms today and the main concern will be
wind gusts up to 65 mph. As of now, storms are expected to cross
the International Border between 6-8PM and move east-southeast
across the Hi-Line.


QPF Monday-Wednesday:

In general, QPF amounts have remained roughly the same compared to
previous forecast runs. The heaviest precipitation is still
expected along the Rocky Mountain Front as well as portions of
central Montana including the Judith Basin, southern Chouteau, and
Fergus county area.

There is a slight hesitancy that the NBM QPF amounts are running
a little high in some places. Some of the uncertainty is due to
the disconnect between the deterministic amounts and the
probabilities from the NBM. Right now the NBM has wide patches of
1"+ across central and north-central Montana but
probabilistically, the NBM says there`s only a 30-50% of reaching
1" and only a 40-60% chance of these locations receiving 0.75" or
more.

The most likely scenario that I see occurring is many locations
north of a line between Helena and the southern Fergus county
border will receive at least 0.5" through Wednesday. Locations
along the Rocky Mountain Front and portions of central Montana
including the Judith Basin and Fergus county areas have the
highest chance to reach 0.75". Higher amounts are most likely
going to be fairly localized and very dependent on where the
stronger embedded storms form within the band of precipitation. In
a lot of ways this thought process justifies the 30-50% chance
from the NBM of all locations in central and north-central Montana
seeing 1" rain. It is certainly possible but it is generally less
likely.


Snow/Wind Along the Rocky Mountain Front:

Snow levels will start out at 10-12,000 feet late Monday evening
and gradually drop behind the cold front down to 8-10,000 feet by
Tuesday morning. 700mb temperatures continue to build confidence
in snow falling at the highest peaks of Glacier National Park. At
this time, snow is not expected to impact Logan Pass or locations
below pass level. Thus the main impacts will be to those
recreating in the backcountry. Winds will also pick up out of the
northeast along the Rocky Mountain Front as the cold front makes
its way south. At this point in time, winds east of the divide are
not strong enough to warrant any high wind products, however,
wind gusts up 50 mph should be expected for anyone recreating in
the area. -thor


&&

.AVIATION...
14/18Z TAF Period

A cold front continues to push southward through North Central MT.
This front will be through Great Falls by 18z. Low ceilings are
developing on the north side of the front. Expect
showers/thunderstorms to develop this evening along the Canadian
border, and transition to more of a stratiform rain by Tuesday
morning over North Central MT. Expect the precipitation to become
more scatter by Tuesday evening. Mountains/passes will become
obscured by this evening, and remain obscured through Tuesday
across the CWA. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  53  57  49 /  10  80  90  70
CTB  68  48  53  44 /  40  90  80  40
HLN  95  55  62  49 /  10  60  80  80
BZN  95  54  72  48 /  10  30  80  80
WYS  84  44  77  41 /  30  20  70  70
DLN  90  51  75  47 /  10  10  70  50
HVR  77  52  62  47 /  20  80  70  50
LWT  90  50  57  46 /  10  70  90  90

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls