Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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177 FXUS65 KTFX 091550 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 850 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds this morning will slowly diminish this afternoon. - However, there is the potential for another period of strong winds on Wednesday in the Cut Bank area. - Rain and snow will continue along the divide for the next few days. - Potential for a widespread heavier snowfall over North Central MT Thursday into Friday. && .UPDATE... A low pressure system will continue to bring lower elevation rain/higher elevation snow throughout the morning, before exiting throughout the afternoon. High winds have been decreasing along the Rocky Mountain Front and western parts of the North-Central MT plains this morning. No changes will be made to the current High Wind Warning statements, with the first batch of statements along the western portions of the North-Central MT plains set to expire at 10am MST today. Although winds won`t continue to be high wind criteria, winds will remain gusty throughout the day. Current trends have the mid-level jet dropping off a little quicker than forecasted, so the other batch of wind statements may be cancelled earlier this afternoon if it keeps trending. -Wilson. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 435 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Strong winds continue to affect the western portions of North Central MT early this morning. The strong winds will continue to move eastward over the eastern portions of the CWA this morning and into the afternoon hours. Thus, no changes to the current high wind warning. On Wednesday, there is another potential for strong winds in the Cut Bank area, and southward along the Plains of the Rocky Mountain Front. Thus, a high wind watch was issued for this area for a short time on Wednesday. Otherwise, rain/snow will affect areas along the divide today. Overnight tonight, snow levels will lower along the divide, allowing for a period of snow near pass level. Thus a short winter weather advisory was issued for late tonight and Wednesday morning for areas along the divide. The snow is likely to change to rain on Wednesday afternoon, as snow levels rise. For today and Wednesday, temperatures will generally remain mild, as a the southerly winds continue to advect in mild air. For Thursday and Friday...the forecast models continue to struggle with how far south to bring the arctic cold front. Additionally, the forecast models struggle with how much overrunning snowfall will occur. Some forecast models prog a widespread 6 to 12 inch snowfall over much of North Central MT. At this time, I will hold off on any winter statements for Thu/Fri...but it is possible that portions of North Central MT will need winter statements later this week. The temperature forecast for Thu/Fri is also very dependent on how far south the front makes it. There will be significant temperature changes behind the cold front, thus some adjustments to the forecast will occur later this week as the frontal location becomes a bit more clear. Over the weekend and into early next week, the forecast models want the cold air to retreat back into Canada very quickly. Sometimes this is too quick, but if southerly winds are strong enough, it is possible for the cold air to move back north rather quickly. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: There is a 60 percent chance for high winds on Wednesday in the Cut Bank area. This is not an overly high probability, but enough for a high wind watch to be issued. In terms of snowfall, many areas of North Central MT have a 60 percent chance for 3 inches of snowfall. The probability for higher snowfall is lower at this time, as the frontal boundary continues to vary. Thus significant changes to snowfall forecast are possible for later this week. Brusda && .AVIATION... 09/12Z TAF Period Main concern early this morning is the strong winds over the CWA. Wind gusts near 50 knots are common. Expect the strong winds to slowly diminish from west to east after 17z this morning. Otherwise, rain/snow will continue along the divide, obscuring mountains in this area through the period. There is a chance for light rain/snow to move southward into the Havre/Lewistown areas this afternoon, and in the Bozeman/Ennis areas towards 12z Wed. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 32 55 39 / 50 60 60 60 CTB 42 25 46 15 / 60 40 40 50 HLN 49 33 54 44 / 70 80 70 50 BZN 50 29 54 41 / 50 70 60 30 WYS 39 26 41 31 / 90 90 80 40 DLN 49 33 54 40 / 50 60 40 10 HVR 44 20 43 19 / 70 10 90 70 LWT 46 24 48 33 / 80 40 90 70 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 10 AM MST this morning for Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Gates of the Mountains-Madison River Valley-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM MST Wednesday for East Glacier Park Region-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains. High Wind Warning until 3 PM MST this afternoon for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County Valleys-Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains- Western and Central Chouteau County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls