177
FXUS65 KTFX 091550
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
850 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds this morning will slowly diminish this afternoon.

- However, there is the potential for another period of strong
  winds on Wednesday in the Cut Bank area.

- Rain and snow will continue along the divide for the next few
  days.

- Potential for a widespread heavier snowfall over North Central
  MT Thursday into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...

A low pressure system will continue to bring lower elevation
rain/higher elevation snow throughout the morning, before exiting
throughout the afternoon. High winds have been decreasing along
the Rocky Mountain Front and western parts of the North-Central MT
plains this morning. No changes will be made to the current High
Wind Warning statements, with the first batch of statements along
the western portions of the North-Central MT plains set to expire
at 10am MST today. Although winds won`t continue to be high wind
criteria, winds will remain gusty throughout the day. Current
trends have the mid-level jet dropping off a little quicker than
forecasted, so the other batch of wind statements may be cancelled
earlier this afternoon if it keeps trending. -Wilson.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 435 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
Strong winds continue to affect the western portions of North
Central MT early this morning. The strong winds will continue to
move eastward over the eastern portions of the CWA this morning
and into the afternoon hours. Thus, no changes to the current high
wind warning.

On Wednesday, there is another potential for strong winds in the
Cut Bank area, and southward along the Plains of the Rocky
Mountain Front. Thus, a high wind watch was issued for this area
for a short time on Wednesday.

Otherwise, rain/snow will affect areas along the divide today.
Overnight tonight, snow levels will lower along the divide,
allowing for a period of snow near pass level. Thus a short
winter weather advisory was issued for late tonight and Wednesday
morning for areas along the divide. The snow is likely to change
to rain on Wednesday afternoon, as snow levels rise.

For today and Wednesday, temperatures will generally remain mild,
as a the southerly winds continue to advect in mild air.

For Thursday and Friday...the forecast models continue to struggle
with how far south to bring the arctic cold front. Additionally,
the forecast models struggle with how much overrunning snowfall
will occur. Some forecast models prog a widespread 6 to 12 inch
snowfall over much of North Central MT. At this time, I will hold
off on any winter statements for Thu/Fri...but it is possible that
portions of North Central MT will need winter statements later
this week. The temperature forecast for Thu/Fri is also very
dependent on how far south the front makes it. There will be
significant temperature changes behind the cold front, thus some
adjustments to the forecast will occur later this week as the
frontal location becomes a bit more clear.

Over the weekend and into early next week, the forecast models
want the cold air to retreat back into Canada very quickly.
Sometimes this is too quick, but if southerly winds are strong
enough, it is possible for the cold air to move back north rather
quickly.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

There is a 60 percent chance for high winds on Wednesday in the
Cut Bank area. This is not an overly high probability, but enough
for a high wind watch to be issued.

In terms of snowfall, many areas of North Central MT have a 60
percent chance for 3 inches of snowfall. The probability for
higher snowfall is lower at this time, as the frontal boundary
continues to vary. Thus significant changes to snowfall forecast
are possible for later this week. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
09/12Z TAF Period

Main concern early this morning is the strong winds over the CWA.
Wind gusts near 50 knots are common. Expect the strong winds to
slowly diminish from west to east after 17z this morning.
Otherwise, rain/snow will continue along the divide, obscuring
mountains in this area through the period. There is a chance for
light rain/snow to move southward into the Havre/Lewistown areas
this afternoon, and in the Bozeman/Ennis areas towards 12z Wed.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  32  55  39 /  50  60  60  60
CTB  42  25  46  15 /  60  40  40  50
HLN  49  33  54  44 /  70  80  70  50
BZN  50  29  54  41 /  50  70  60  30
WYS  39  26  41  31 /  90  90  80  40
DLN  49  33  54  40 /  50  60  40  10
HVR  44  20  43  19 /  70  10  90  70
LWT  46  24  48  33 /  80  40  90  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 10 AM MST this morning for Cascade
County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier,
Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern
Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Gates of the Mountains-Madison
River Valley-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern
Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM MST
Wednesday for East Glacier Park Region-Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central
Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains.

High Wind Warning until 3 PM MST this afternoon for Bears Paw
Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle
Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin
County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher
County Valleys-Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-
Western and Central Chouteau County.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls