200
FXUS65 KTFX 080947
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
347 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another warm and dry day, with areas of smoke today.

- Temperatures start to cool off by the middle of next week.

- The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase by the
  middle of next week as well, with the best area for
  precipitation to fall being over North Central MT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:
The summertime upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to
reside over the Great Basin for a few more days, before gradually
breaking down a bit by the middle of next week. Afternoon
temperatures will be on the warm side today, but I did lower the
valleys of Southwest MT today a few degrees below guidance, with
the thick smoke, afternoon temperatures are not getting quite as
warm as models prog. Otherwise, there is about a 10 percent chance
for a dry thunderstorm near the MT/ID border west of Monida Pass
towards evening. Expect a wind shift over North Central MT around
mid day, this will keep afternoon temperatures just a bit lower
over the north today as well.

For Sunday through Tuesday, a very gradual and slow cooling trend
is expected, along with mostly dry conditions.

For Wednesday through Saturday, an upper level trof of low
pressure is expected to move southward into the northern portions
of MT by Thursday. This will result in quite a bit cooler
temperatures, especially over the northern portions of the CWA.
Today, the 00z run of the GFS is about 30 degrees colder with
afternoon temperatures than yesterday`s 00z run over North
Central MT. Over Southwest MT, it should turn cooler, just not as
cool as North Central MT. Additionally, the GFS/EC are averaging
between 0.10 and 0.20 inches of precipitation over North Central
MT from Wed into Thu. This isn`t a lot of precipitation, but more
than what has fallen recently. The upper level trof could exit
the area by next Saturday, resulting in an unstable southwesterly
flow aloft setting up.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
With the 00z GFS today progging temperatures about 30 degrees
colder than yesterday over North Central MT by next Thursday,
confidence is a bit uncertain about the timing/strength of the
colder air by the middle of next week. Additionally, how far south
does the precipitation go before cutting off. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
08/12Z TAF Period

Expect surface wind shifts over North Central MT, with smoke
reducing visibility across the CWA through the period. IFR or
lower conditions because of smoke is likely over Southwest MT
through the period. Note, visibility could be a bit lower at
night at ASOS sites when smoke is in the area than what ASOS is
reporting. Mountains/passes will be obscured across the CWA
through the period because of smoke.

KGTF: Overall winds will be light at Great Falls today. The main
concern will be shifting winds. Expect a wind shift to the north
by late morning, only to shift back more westerly by late evening.
Additional surface wind shifts are possible once again on Sunday
afternoon. Brusda

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the southern districts
through today. The combination of gusty afternoon winds, low
humidity and hot temperatures will create critical fire weather
conditons. Because of all the smoke, some locations might not mix
the winds aloft today, resulting in the potential for the Red Flag
Warning to be cancelled early. Expect some wind shifts over North
Central MT today and Sunday, with cooler temperatures/wetter
conditions over North Central as well by the middle of next week.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  91  56  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  83  51  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  93  57  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  93  54  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  88  44  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  91  52  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  90  56  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  87  54  83  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-Helena and
Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-Lincoln
Ranger District of the Helena National Forest.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls