981
FXUS65 KTFX 261934
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
134 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Breezy winds diminishing this evening over the plains.

 - Trending warmer this week.

 - Breezy Tuesday and Wednesday over the plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Although lingering cyclonic flow aloft will be in place across the
region through the remainder of the day, cooler surface temperatures
will keep showery precipitation at bay. Troughing presently off
the west coast of the CONUS will continue diving SE toward CA by
Sunday. A southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this trough will yield
ample cloud cover through the day Sunday, with a low-end
opportunity for a few light showers, particularly Sunday evening.
Lingering influence from troughing will yield another opportunity
for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the vicinity of
West Yellowstone Monday.

A zonal flow aloft develops after Monday as the aforementioned
troughing continues southeastward toward the four-corners region.
Temperatures trend slightly warmer as a result, with breezy
stretch developing over the plains Tuesday and Wednesday. Most, if
not all of the upcoming week is looking dry. -AM

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Cross barrier flow looks to peak sometime on Tuesday. The
probability for a 55 mph gust around Cut Bank is in the vicinity of
25%.

A few deterministic runs continue to hint at a trough moving across
the region late week into the weekend, but ensemble support is
minimal. Hence, A dry scenario is favored next weekend, with around
a 20% chance for a trend toward a wetter scenario. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
26/12z TAF Period.

Strong winds should begin to diminish by mid morning over the
western portions of North Central MT. Expect passing clouds
during the day today, with breezy conditions elsewhere through
this afternoon. Clearing skies and light winds are expected
across the CWA this evening. Mountains/passes could be obscured at
times this morning over the Northern Rockies as some light
rain/snow falls in this area. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  64  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  32  58  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  35  65  43  71 /   0   0  20   0
BZN  36  64  40  68 /   0   0  10  10
WYS  32  64  36  59 /   0  10  60  60
DLN  36  65  40  67 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  36  68  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  35  64  42  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls