Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
225
FNUS75 KTFX 152354
FWSTFX
Spot Forecast for Bear Gulch...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
554 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 MDT on September 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
An upper level system digging southward along the west coast will
eventually result in increasing temperatures and a risk for
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms by Thursday. In
the meantime a push of northerly winds begins moving in overnight,
largely persisting through the day Wednesday. Low level clouds
look to accompany this push of northerly air into Wednesday
morning, slowly diminishing through the late morning and early
afternoon. Given warmer temperatures aloft, mixing height doesnt
look to be more than a few thousand feet AGL for Wednesday
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...2 percent.
Min temperature.....44-49.
Max humidity........77-82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......North winds around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........38 45 66 54 46 27 39 42 49 49 50 58
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............65 64 59 56 55 53 52 51 50 49 48 48
RH..............33 39 47 54 60 65 68 69 74 74 79 79
20 FT wind dir..NE N NW NW W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..5 5 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.15 15 20 20 20 15 15 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0
Transp wind dir.NE N N N N N N N NW N N N
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy early (55-65 percent), becoming
partly cloudy by the afternoon (30-40 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....62-67.
Min humidity........37-42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......North wind around 5-10 mph.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 10 mph.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........65 57 63 57 52 47 39 35 30 23 15 9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............47 46 47 48 51 52 54 59 62 62 64 62
RH..............82 82 80 74 73 70 66 58 51 49 45 46
20 FT wind dir..NW NW N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust. 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 10 5 10 10 5 10 10 10
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....44-49.
Max humidity........74-79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
late in the evening, then becoming light
overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph, becoming light west and
eventually south.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........10 10 10 12 12 12 28 28 28 42 42 42
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............63 62 56 54 52 51 50 50 48 48 47 47
RH..............45 48 56 63 68 71 72 71 74 74 78 77
20 FT wind dir..N N N W W W W W W SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 FT wind gust.15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.N N NW NW NW W W W SW S S S
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Slight chance
for a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Max temperature.....74-79.
Min humidity........33-38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds near any
shower or thunderstorm.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph shifting to the east late
in the afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40 40 40 26 26 26 10 10 10 15 15 25
Weather cov..... SCH
Weather type.... RW
Tstm cov........ SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Temp............46 46 48 51 54 58 62 66 70 74 76 76
RH..............79 78 72 65 60 56 52 47 41 38 37 37
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SE SE SE E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust. 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.0 3.0
Transp wind dir.S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10
$$
Forecaster...McDowell
Requested by...Kyle Miller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621433.9/TFX
.DELDT 09/15/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.a.miller@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov