414
FNUS75 KTFX 101850
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for South Fork Judith piles...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1150 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on December 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A mix of rain and snow will affect the burn area Thursday morning.
There will be windy west winds in the morning. Late morning to
early afternoon Thursday, an arctic front will pass through the
area. This will bring a northwest/north wind shift as well as a
quick drop in temperatures to below freezing. This will switch the
precipitation type to all snow, as well as decrease the winds
for Thursday afternoon. Friday will be a little bit colder with
moderate to heavy snowfall throughout the day.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow early in the morning. Rain through the
                    day. Snow in the afternoon.
CWR.................25 percent increasing to 70 percent late in the
                    morning, then decreasing to 55 percent late in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.
Max temperature.....44-49.
Min humidity........58-63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Breezy. West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to
                    around 40 mph decreasing to around 15 mph with
                    gusts to around 30 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 30 to 35 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph in
                    the late morning and early afternoon, then
                    shifting to the northwest around 30 mph late in
                    the afternoon decreasing to 15 to 20 mph late
                    in the afternoon.

TIME (MST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........74  80  87  94  95  95  96  96  96  97
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RS  RS  RS  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30  30  30  70  70  70  70  70  70  60
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0    5   5   5  0
Temp............42  44  44  45  44  43  42  40  38  34
RH..............68  68  68  68  73  75  77  76  77  81
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..25  25  25  25  25  20  20  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.40  40  40  40  40  35  30  30  25  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.30  35  40  40  40  40  35  30  20  15

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Snow likely in the
                    evening.
CWR.................55 percent increasing to 80 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....18-23.
Max humidity........87-92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northeast late in the evening, then shifting to
                    the southwest overnight.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 mph.

TIME (MST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........97  97  88  88  88  93  93  93  97  97  97  98
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............60  60  60  60  60  70  70  70  70  70  70  80
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............32  31  29  29  29  29  28  28  27  26  25  24
RH..............83  83  83  83  82  82  82  83  83  83  83  84
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  SW  S   S   S   W
20 FT wind spd..10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.20  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow, then chance of
                    snow late in the afternoon.
CWR.................80 percent decreasing to 30 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....33-38.
Min humidity........71-76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.

TIME (MST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........98  98  97  97  97  94  94  94  88  88  88  82
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............80  80  80  80  80  70  70  70  70  70  70  30
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............24  24  25  26  28  31  34  36  37  37  36  34
RH..............84  85  85  84  82  79  76  73  70  70  71  72
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20  25
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 2.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15

$$
Forecaster...Wilson
Requested by...Kyle Marquardt
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2527395.0/TFX
.DELDT 12/10/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.marquardt@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov