Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
940
FNUS75 KTFX 162354
FWSTFX
Spot Forecast for Bear Gulch...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
554 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 MDT on September 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
The rest of the evening will remain dry with light winds.
Thursday morning to early afternoon, there`s a small chance for a
light rain shower. Better chances for isolated showers and
thunderstorms arrive after 1600 Thursday. Thunderstorm outflow
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible. Better chances for
rain arrives Friday afternoon with another threat for strong
thunderstorm outflow winds.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...1 percent.
Min temperature.....45-50.
Max humidity........74-79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......North winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the west
early in the evening, then becoming light late
in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south after 3
am.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6 4 8 9 15 7 7 4 12 13 18 27
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............63 63 58 55 54 52 51 51 50 49 49 48
RH..............45 48 56 62 68 71 72 71 74 74 76 77
20 FT wind dir..N N W W W W N SW SW SW W SW
20 FT wind spd..10 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 FT wind gust.15 15 10 10 5 5 5 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.N N N NW NW W W W W SW S S
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance
of a mid morning and early afternoon shower.
Thunderstorms possible mostly after 4 PM.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Max temperature.....75-80.
Min humidity........28-33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph
in the afternoon
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24 27 36 24 22 30 20 33 51 49 56 61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10
Temp............47 47 49 52 56 59 63 69 72 74 76 75
RH..............79 78 73 63 59 55 47 41 36 33 33 34
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW N NE NE NE NE NE NE E S
20 FT wind spd..0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.5 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.5
Transp wind dir.S S S SE SE SE SE S SE S S S
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then chance of rain late in the evening.
CWR.................10 percent decreasing to 0 percent overnight.
Chance of thunder...25 percent.
Min temperature.....51-56.
Max humidity........75-80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening and
overnight becoming light. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........82 82 82 65 65 65 51 51 51 57 57 57
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RN RN
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).30 30 30 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............75 73 68 64 63 61 60 59 58 57 55 55
RH..............37 40 46 54 59 63 65 66 72 70 74 78
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S S S SW SW SW SW W W W SW SW
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 10 5 5 10 5 5 10 10
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Rain likely early
in the afternoon. Rain showers likely and
chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent increasing to 35 percent in the
afternoon.
Chance of thunder...30 percent.
Max temperature.....70-75.
Min humidity........40-45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming north around 5 mph late in
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 5 mph shifting to the
northeast late in the morning increasing to
around 15 mph late in the afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52 52 52 56 56 56 71 71 71 71 71 71
Weather cov..... LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type.... RN RN RN RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 40 40 40 40 40 40
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 30 30 30
Temp............54 53 54 56 59 62 64 67 69 70 70 69
RH..............80 80 79 76 72 68 63 56 49 45 46 49
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW W NW NW NE NE NE N N N
20 FT wind spd..0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.0 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.0
Transp wind dir.W SW W W NW NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 15 15
$$
Forecaster...Wilson
Requested by...Kyle Miller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621433.11/TFX
.DELDT 09/16/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.a.miller@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov