652
FNUS75 KTFX 190939
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Bear Gulch...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
339 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on September 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Steady rain is expected this morning and may be moderate at times
with rates up to 0.20" per hour possible through 0900.
Precipitation turns more showery this afternoon before ending this
evening. Sunny and drier conditions are expected Sunday with
temperatures trending above average for the upcoming week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................95 percent decreasing to 50 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Max temperature.....58-63.
Min humidity........67-72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds around 5 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 10 mph.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........97  98  95  93  93  91  88  92  92  88  94  94
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY DEF CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RN  RN  RN  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH             SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............100 100 100 100 100 100 50  50  50  50  50  50
Chc of thdr (%).20  20  20  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............56  54  54  53  53  53  53  55  56  56  58  58
RH..............79  81  84  86  93  95  95  90  85  80  73  72
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.
Min temperature.....46-51.
Max humidity........76-81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds to around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph, shifting to the
                    southwest overnight.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........85  85  94  84  72  74  61  54  52  43  42  55
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............58  59  57  56  55  54  54  54  53  52  50  50
RH..............72  72  73  72  74  74  72  72  75  75  77  79
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SW  W   SW  W   SW  W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   0   5   5   5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind gust.10  5               5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  E   SW  S   S   S   SW  W   SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....68-73.
Min humidity........36-41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10  mph .

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51  51  51  38  38  38  26  26  26  26  26  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............49  48  49  51  55  57  59  65  67  68  70  68
RH..............81  81  80  74  73  68  63  55  49  43  41  41
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..0   0   0   0   0   0   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 4.0
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  SW  NE  NE  SE  NW  NW  SE  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10

$$
Forecaster...Hoenisch
Requested by...Kyle Miller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621433.15/TFX
.DELDT 09/19/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.a.miller@usda.gov