Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
905
FNUS75 KTFX 161345
FWSTFX
Spot Forecast for Jericho Mountain Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
745 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 MDT on June 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
...Shower/Thunderstorms early this week...
...Potential for a wet/cold/mountain snow conditions on Sunday...
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered shower/thunderstorms will affect the burn area today and
Tuesday. Some storms could produce brief gusty winds/brief heavy
rainfall. It is looking mostly dry/warmer for Wed but storms
return by late Thu.
For Friday and Saturday...There will be a chance for a passing
shower and thunderstorm, along with a slow cooling trend.
Looking ahead, one of two forecast models is showing the potential
for wet/cold conditions on Sunday over the burn area. Snow levels
could be as low as 6500 feet. Since it is 6 days away and only 1
of 2 models supports this scenario, confidence is low at this
time.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers early in the morning, then rain
showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
CWR.................15 percent increasing to 45 percent in the
afternoon.
Chance of thunder...46 percent.
Max temperature.....60-65.
Min humidity........52-57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northwest late in the afternoon, then shifting
to the north late in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Ridgetop...........Southeast around 10 mph shifting to the
southwest late in the morning, then shifting to
the west late in the afternoon increasing to
around 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast late
in the morning, then shifting to the west in
the afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........88 74 75 64 78 78 78 78 78 77
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............20 20 20 20 50 50 50 50 50 50
Chc of thdr (%).10 10 10 10 40 40 40 50 50 50
Temp............52 54 56 57 57 58 58 59 60 60
RH..............66 66 65 67 63 64 60 60 57 57
20 FT wind dir..E E E NE NE NE E NW NW N
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15
Ridge wind dir..SE SE S S SW SW W W W W
Ridge wind spd..10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.0 5.0 5.5 4.5 4.0 3.0
Transp wind dir.E E E SE E W SW W NW W
Transp wind spd.10 10 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
slight chance of rain showers overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of thunder...25 percent.
Min temperature.....46-51.
Max humidity........71-76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast late in the evening, then shifting to
the southwest late in the evening shifting to
the west after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the evening.
Ridgetop...........West 20 to 25 mph becoming north 5 to 10 mph
early in the evening, then decreasing to 0 to 5
mph in the late evening and overnight
increasing to west 10 to 15 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 mph shifting to the north
early in the evening, then shifting to the
northeast late in the evening shifting to the
south late in the evening shifting to the
southwest.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........64 63 63 71 68 63 60 68 55 59 53 67
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of thdr (%).30 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0
Temp............61 59 56 53 51 50 50 50 49 49 49 48
RH..............58 58 67 73 76 76 76 72 75 74 74 74
20 FT wind dir..NE N NE NE SE S SW SW SW W W W
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Ridge wind dir..W NW NW N N N N N NW W W NW
Ridge wind spd..25 20 10 5 0 0 0 0 5 10 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.0 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W NW N NE NE SE S S SW W W W
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers through the day. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of thunder...16 percent.
Max temperature.....62-67.
Min humidity........29-34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Ridgetop...........West 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........71 71 59 46 46 36 35 35 35 35 35 35
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
Temp............48 49 50 52 55 58 58 61 62 62 63 64
RH..............73 70 69 64 58 51 48 42 40 39 37 37
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W NW NW NW NW W W W
20 FT wind spd..5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 20
Ridge wind dir..NW NW NW NW W W W W W W W W
Ridge wind spd..20 20 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 1.0 1.5 3.0 5.0 6.5 7.0 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.0
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.10 10 15 15 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15
$$
Forecaster...Brusda/Gesell
Requested by...Michael Kaiser
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516006.1/TFX
.DELDT 06/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.kaiser@usda.gov, mthdc@firenet.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov