445
FNUS75 KTFX 261958
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Running Wolf...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
158 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 MDT on June 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Primary concern for this afternoon will be scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity moving in from the southwest. Hires guidance
highlights 1600 to 2000 local time for the greatest coverage of
convective activity, but some development prior to this time can`t
be ruled out with destabilization from daytime heating. Erratic
wind gusts and isolated lightning strikes are expected to be the
most problematic hazards. Although this activity diminishes some
tonight, an unstable southwesterly flow aloft will maintain at
least slight chances for a few showers or storms during the
overnight hours. A Pacific cold front brings a more robust brand
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning through early
afternoon, some storms will be strong to severe with strong winds,
hail, and heavy rain in addition to lightning.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Increasing clouds (25-45 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....74-79.
Min humidity........23-28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South to southeast winds around 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
 Ridgetop...........Southwest around 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................15 percent.
LAL.................3.
Min temperature.....51-56.
Max humidity........68-73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
 Ridgetop...........Southwest around 15 mph.
Haines Index........

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-90 percent). Scattered to numerous showers
                    and thunderstorms in the morning through early afternoon.
                    Some storms may be strong to severe.
CWR.................85 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....60-65.
Min humidity........42-47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the morning.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Southwest around 10 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Greely
Requested by...Richard Smith
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416679.1/TFX
.DELDT 06/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mtgdc@firenet.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov