243
FNUS75 KTFX 152038
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Jericho Mountain Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
238 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 MDT on June 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across Central
Montana will largely exit eastward through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening. A few showers linger through the
night, though are not forecast to produce much, if any
precipitation. Another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms develops late tomorrow morning into the afternoon.
Lightning, gusty winds, and hail are the primary concerns with the
showers and thunderstorms that form.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of thunder...37 percent.
Max temperature.....65-70.
Min humidity........33-38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West to northwest wind around 5 to 10 mph Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
 Ridgetop...........West around 15 mph.
Mixing height.......8500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.

TIME (MDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........64  72  51
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).40  40  30
Temp............67  65  65
RH..............38  38  39
20 FT wind dir..NE  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15
Ridge wind dir..W   W   NW
Ridge wind spd..15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...8.5 7.5 7.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W
Transp wind spd.15  15  10

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of
                    rain showers through the night.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of thunder...16 percent.
Min temperature.....47-52.
Max humidity........67-72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North to northwest winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming
                    downslope/valley around 5 mph after sunset.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the evening.
 Ridgetop...........Northwest 10 to 15 mph, coming variable around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 mph becoming light and variable
                    around 5 mph.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........59  70  47  65  65  51  53  64  66  66  63  69
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............64  61  58  56  54  53  52  52  51  51  51  50
RH..............39  48  57  63  68  69  69  68  68  68  71  72
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   NE  S   NE  SW  S   SE  S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10
Ridge wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   E   E   E   SE
Ridge wind spd..15  15  15  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 4.0 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.NW  N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  E
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent increasing to 45 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...41 percent.
Max temperature.....61-66.
Min humidity........49-54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Up slope/valley around 3 mph early, becoming
                    northwest around 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Variable around 5 mph, becoming west around 10 mph
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Variable around 5 mph, becoming west to northwest
                    around 10 mph in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67  71  64  68  62  69  61  75  76  70  66  64
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  50  50  50  50  50  50
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   30  30  30  40  40  20
Temp............49  51  53  55  58  59  59  60  60  60  62  60
RH..............71  67  66  66  62  60  60  62  58  58  55  55
20 FT wind dir..S   S   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NW  NW  NW  NE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.        10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
Ridge wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   NW
Ridge wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.0 4.0 3.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 5.0 4.0
Transp wind dir.SE  E   E   SE  S   S   SW  NW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   10  10  5   10  10  15  15  15

$$
Forecaster...McDowell
Requested by...Michael Kaiser
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516006.0/TFX
.DELDT 06/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.kaiser@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov