360
FXUS21 KWNC 231900
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST November 23 2025

SYNOPSIS: Strong mid-level low pressure extending from northern Canada into the
southwestern Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) is favored to usher Arctic air deep into
the Great Plains, potentially resulting in the first freeze of the season for
portions of the Southern Plains. Persistent mid-level low pressure across the
West increases the likelihood of heavy snow for high elevations across the
Northern and Central Rockies. Heavy precipitation and heavy snow are also
possible for portions of the Great Plains, much of the Mississippi Valley and
across parts of the Upper Midwest and Northeast as a low pressure system and
associated front forms downwind of the Rockies.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of heavy snow for much of the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and
northern New England, Mon-Wed, Dec 1-3.

Slight risk of heavy snow across the Rocky Mountains, Mon-Wed, Dec 1-3.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Lower and Middle
Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and eastern Southern Plains,
Sun-Thu, Mon-Wed, Dec 1-3.

Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for portions of the Desert
Southwest, Southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley, Mon-Fri, Dec 1-5.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26 - SUNDAY NOVEMBER 30:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR MONDAY DECEMBER 01 - SUNDAY DECEMBER 07: Model ensembles have struggled to
maintain a consistent solution on the development of amplified
ridging(troughing) over the North Pacific(western CONUS) even as the
anticipated event draws nearer. Regardless of the precise timing and intensity
of these features, cold air is favored to move southward as a result, pushing
far enough south to potentially bring the season`s first freeze to portions of
the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. This is well indicated by the
Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs), which indicate at least a 20% chance of
minimum temperatures falling below the 15th climatological percentile and 32F
for much of central and northern Texas as well as northern Louisiana and
southern Arkansas, areas that have yet to experience their first freeze.
Therefore a slight risk of much below-normal temperatures is posted for these
regions for Dec 1-5. Much colder temperatures are expected north of this
region, however with the season`s first freeze having already occurred no other
areas are highlighted for cold weather risks as any minimum temperatures are
not expected to fall below advisory or hazard criteria.



Model solutions also depict a large frontal/baroclinic zone over the central
CONUS supported by deep and persistent mid-level troughing over the West,
bringing a variety of potentially hazardous weather to regions from the Rockies
to the Northeast. At the outset of week-2 a surface low is favored over the
Mississippi Valley, while strong surface high pressure is likely over the North
Atlantic. These features, all combined and fed with the aforementioned cold
air, favor widespread snow across the Northern Tier especially for areas prone
to lake-effect snow. A slight risk of heavy snow is posted from the Northern
Plains east across the Great Lakes and northern New England for Dec 1-3.
Further snow is possible beyond these days, but confidence is lower regarding
accumulation totals.



Models also indicate the potential for heavy precipitation further south, over
the Middle Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, although today`s solutions
indicate lower precipitation totals from this event than in previous days.
However, both the ECMWF and GEFS PETs still show at least a 20% chance of 3-day
precipitation totals exceeding the 85th percentile and at least 1 inch early in
week-2, further supported by pattern recognition of favorable synoptic
conditions. Therefore a slight risk of heavy precipitation remains posted, for
Dec 1-3.



Amplified mid-level troughing is favored to settle over the western CONUS,
bringing an extended period of snow to much of the Intermountain West. A slight
risk of heavy snow is posted for most of the Rockies for Dec 1-3, where the
GEFS PET for snow water equivalent (SWE) indicates at least a 20% chance of
3-day SWE accumulation to exceed the 85th percentile and at least 1 inch early
in the forecast period. Similar to the above discussion concerning heavy
precipitation, model solutions today are much less bullish with regard to large
total accumulations, therefore the moderate risk of heavy snow has been
discontinued.

FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran

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