079
FXUS21 KWNC 081802
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 08 2025

SYNOPSIS: A transition to mid-level zonal flow and prevailing surface high
pressure favors a tranquil weather pattern for most of the lower 48 states from
October 16 to 22. However, there is an increased chance for a surface low
tracking near the East Coast early in week-2 which could bring hazardous winds
and heavy precipitation to parts of the Northeast. A widespread frost or freeze
could affect the eastern Corn Belt, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic
heading into late October. A Rapid Onset Drought risk remains for parts of
southeastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley where above-normal
temperatures and limited precipitation are forecast during the next two weeks.
A stormy pattern with wetter-than-normal conditions are expected to persist
across most of Alaska.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of high winds for the coastal Northeast, Thu-Sat, Oct 16-18.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for northern New England, Thu-Sat, Oct
16-18.

Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for parts of the eastern Corn
Belt, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, Sun-Wed, Oct 19-22.

Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for parts of northern California,
Oregon, and Nevada, Thu, Oct 16.

Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk for southeastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi
Valley.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY OCTOBER 11 - WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 15:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 16 - WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 22: The ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE are
in good agreement and remain consistent that anomalous 500-hPa ridging expands
west over the North Atlantic and Greenland later next week which results in a
deepening mid-level trough across the Canadian Maritimes and Northeast. The
ECENS and CMCE are the most amplified with this mid-level trough. This
deepening mid-level trough may lead to an intense surface low near New England
or offshore in the northwestern Atlantic. Based on the deterministic 0Z ECMWF
and several of its ensemble members, the surface low would track close enough
to support a slight risk of high winds for the coastal Northeast from October
16 to 18. In addition, a consensus between the uncalibrated ECENS and GEFS
models supports a slight risk of heavy precipitation for northern New England,
also valid through October 18th. The three-day wind and precipitation hazards
are necessary since the ensemble means depict the surface low moving very
slowly due to the blocking ridge over the North Atlantic.



The evolving longwave pattern over the North Atlantic and eastern North America
could lead to a return of colder-than-normal temperatures across the East by
October 18 or 19. The CMCE is the coldest model solution with below-normal
temperatures developing throughout much of the East, while the GEFS limits the
anomalous cold to the Mid-Atlantic. A slight risk of much below-normal
temperatures, valid October 19-22, is posted for parts of the eastern Corn
Belt, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic where the ECENS Probabilistic
Extremes Tool (PET) depicts minimum temperatures having a 20-40 percent chance
of falling into the lowest 15th percentile and below 40 degrees F. This cold
temperature hazard extends through the end of week-2 as many of GEFS and ECENS
members depict surface high pressure becoming centered over these areas towards
the end of week-2. The Central Appalachians are forecast to have their 1st
frost or freeze of the season on October 9 and 10. The 1st freeze of the fall
season typically occurs in mid to late October in the outlined hazard area.



Surface high pressure may become centered over the interior West from late
week-1 through the beginning of week-2. On October 16, a slight risk of much
below-normal temperatures is posted for parts of the Pacific Northwest,
northern California, and Great Basin where the GEFS and ECMWF PETs have a 20-40
percent chance of  minimum temperatures falling below the lowest 15th
percentile and at or below freezing. Some of the areas designated with a cold
temperature hazard have already experienced a freeze earlier this fall. It
should be noted that minimum temperatures are likely to remain well above
freezing across the Central Valley of California with ensemble means depicting
lows in the upper 40s (degrees F).



30-day precipitation deficits range from 3 to 5 inches across much of
southeastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. This antecedent dryness
combined with the increased likelihood of little to no precipitation and daily
highs in the 80s to lower 90s (degrees F) support a Rapid Onset Drought risk
from southeastern Texas east through Louisiana and Mississippi.



An amplified 500-hPa trough is likely to spawn multiple low pressure systems
across the Bering Sea during the next two weeks. In addition, recurving
tropical cyclones in the West Pacific will have to be closely monitored. A
brief lull in storminess is anticipated across southern Alaska early in week-2
before another low pressure system tracks across the Bering Sea, Aleutians, or
Gulf of Alaska around October 20. Due to large ensemble spread on the track and
intensity of this low pressure system along with a lack of support from the
ECENS and GEFS PETs, a heavy precipitation hazard is not posted at this time.
However, precipitation and wind hazards may be needed for coastal southern
Alaska in subsequent outlooks.

FORECASTER: Brad Pugh

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