471
FXUS21 KWNC 021846
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST November 02 2025

SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure forecast over the northeastern Pacific favors
an increased risk of heavy precipitation, high elevation snowfall, and high
winds over portions of the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and southeastern
Alaska during week-2. A shortwave trough exiting the Northeast brings increased
chances for high winds to parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Increasing
model spread reduces forecast confidence during the second half of week-2.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of heavy precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest and
northern California, Mon-Thu, Nov 10-13.

Slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Cascade, Sierra Nevada, and
Klamath Ranges, Mon-Thu, Nov 10-13.

Slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Northern Rockies, Mon-Thu, Nov
10-13.

Slight risk of high winds across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern
California, Mon-Thu, Nov 10-13.

Slight risk of high winds across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast,
Mon, Nov 10.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 05 - SUNDAY NOVEMBER 09:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR MONDAY NOVEMBER 10 - SUNDAY NOVEMBER 16: The 0z GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE
models remain in fair agreement regarding troughing across the northeastern
Pacific persisting into week-2. The models are in better agreement regarding
the timing of multiple shortwave troughs moving inland. IVT tools and raw model
guidance indicate a wave of moisture at the end of week-1, followed by a brief
lull in activity. The best signal for heavy precipitation and high elevation
snow is now around days 9-11. Both the GEFS and ECENS Probabilistic Extremes
Tools (PETs) indicate at a 20-30 percent chance 3-day precipitation totals
exceed the 85th climatological percentile and 1.5 inches during the early and
middle of week-2, with chances decreasing somewhat later in the period. Both
the GEFS and ECENS Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) tool indicate enhanced
probabilities of IVT values exceeding 250 kg/m/s through about day-10 (Nov 12),
perhaps extending into day 11. The ECENS tools then indicate continued moisture
through the end of week-2 without support from the GEFS. Based upon these tools
a slight risk of heavy precipitation, high elevation snow, and high winds,
remains posted for the Pacific Northwest and Northern California through Nov
13. The slight risk of heavy snow was extended south into portions of the
Sierra Nevada and Klamath Mountains today due to increased model support for a
southern extension of moisture on days 10 and 11.



Across the interior Mountain West, models support increased chances of heavy
snow further south relative to prior forecasts. The GEFS Snow Water Equivalent
(SWE) PET indicates elevated SWE through much of the Northern Rockies
Therefore, an additional heavy snow hazard is posted through Nov 13 for the
region. Some of the raw model guidance would support bringing the snow hazard
into parts of the central Rockies. However, the anomalous ridge may reduce the
chances of this occurring but this area will continue to be monitored.



In the Northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to be exiting the region. High
wind chances remain elevated across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
through day 8 behind any potential frontal systems. Thus, a slight risk of high
winds remains posted for these areas, just for Nov 10.



Across Alaska, periods of high winds and locally heavy precipitation are
possible over the Southeast associated with anomalous mid-level troughing over
the northeastern Pacific and Bering Sea. However PETs show precipitation
amounts and wind speeds likely remaining below hazard thresholds.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

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