516
FXUS21 KWNC 221844
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST November 22 2025

SYNOPSIS: Strong mid-level low pressure extending from northern Canada into the
southwestern Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) is favored to usher Arctic air deep into
the Great Plains, potentially resulting in the first freeze of the season for
portions of the Southern Plains. Persistent mid-level low pressure across the
West increases the likelihood of heavy snow for high elevations across the
Northern and Central Rockies. A variety of hazardous weather including heavy
precipitation, high winds and heavy snow are also possible for portions of the
Great Plains, much of the Mississippi Valley and across parts of the Upper
Midwest and Northeast as several low pressure systems and associated fronts
form downwind of the Rockies. Deep and persistent surface low pressure over the
Bering Sea results in potentially hazardous winds for the Aleutians and coastal
portions of southwestern Alaska.

HAZARDS

Moderate risk of heavy snow for much of the Central Rockies, Sun-Tue, Nov
30-Dec 2.

Slight risk of heavy snow for much of the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and
northern New England, Sun-Wed, Nov 30-Dec 3.

Slight risk of heavy snow across the Rocky Mountains, Sun-Thu, Nov 30-Dec 4.

Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Lower and Middle
Mississippi and western Tennessee Valleys, Sun-Tue, Nov 30-Dec 2.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for much of the Lower and Middle Mississippi
Valley, as well as portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and eastern
Southern and Central Plains, Sun-Thu, Nov 30-Dec 4.

Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for portions of the Desert
Southwest, Southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley, Mon-Fri, Dec 1-5.

Slight risk of high winds for much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley,
Sun-Tue, Nov 30-Dec 2.

Slight risk of high winds for the Aleutian Islands, Alaskan Peninsula, and
along the coastline of Bristol Bay, Sun-Wed, Nov 30-Dec 3.

Flooding possible for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Arklatex
region.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR TUESDAY NOVEMBER 25 - SATURDAY NOVEMBER 29:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR SUNDAY NOVEMBER 30 - SATURDAY DECEMBER 06: Model ensembles from the GEFS,
ECENS, and CMCE have come into much better agreement with regard to synoptic
conditions over the week-2 period. Solutions for 500-hPa height anomalies
indicate deep troughing over the Bering Sea and over the western CONUS, with
amplified ridging in between, extending from the North Pacific well into the
Arctic Circle. Cold air is favored to move southward as a result, pushing far
enough south to potentially bring the season`s first freeze to portions of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. This is well indicated by the
Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs), which indicate at least a 20% chance of
minimum temperatures falling below the 15th climatological percentile and 32F
for much of central and northern Texas as well as northern Louisiana and
southern Arkansas, areas that have yet to experience their first freeze.
Therefore a slight risk of much below-normal temperatures is posted for these
regions for Dec 1-5. Much colder temperatures are expected north of this
region, however with the season`s first freeze having already occurred no other
areas are highlighted for cold weather risks as any minimum temperatures are
not expected to fall below advisory or hazard criteria. Today`s model solutions
are much more bullish with respect to potentially extreme cold temperatures in
the Northern Plains, but there is insufficient model consensus to issue an
associated hazard at this time.



Model solutions also depict a large frontal/baroclinic zone over the central
CONUS supported by deep and persistent mid-level troughing over the West,
bringing a variety of potentially hazardous weather to regions from the Rockies
to the Northeast. At the outset of week-2 a strong surface low is favored over
the North Atlantic, while strong surface high pressure is likely over the
southeastern CONUS. Models also indicate cyclogenesis occurring in the lee of
the Rockies sometime during the forecast period. These features, all combined
and fed with the aforementioned cold air, favor widespread snow across the
Northern Tier especially for areas prone to lake-effect snow. A slight risk of
heavy snow is posted from the Northern Plains east across the Great Lakes and
northern New England for Nov 30-Dec 23. Further snow is possible beyond these
days, but confidence is lower regarding accumulation totals. Over the past few
days model guidance has come close to warranting a moderate risk of heavy snow
to be issued over the Central Plains early in the week-2 period, but there has
been insufficient consensus to include in today`s outlook.



Models also indicate the potential for heavy precipitation further south, over
the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Both the ECMWF and GEFS PETs show at
least a 20% chance of 3-day precipitation totals exceeding the 85th percentile
and at least 1 inch through the middle of week-2 warranting a slight risk of
heavy precipitation for Nov 30-Dec 4. Today`s solutions are very bullish, with
uncalibrated probabilities from both the ECMWF and GEFS indicating at least a
20% chance of 3-day precipitation totals exceeding 2 inches during the middle
of week-2 and above 60% chances of one inch, warranting a moderate risk of
heavy precipitation to be issued for portions of the Lower and Middle
Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley valid Nov 30-Dec 2. Given the
potential for large rainfall totals over the course of the week and relatively
rough regional orography, a risk of flooding is highlighted for most of
Arkansas, along with the Arklatex region and western Tennessee. Finally, winds
are also likely to be enhanced along and behind this disturbance. ECMWF and
GEFS ensemble mean wind speeds exceed 20mph episodically over much of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley early in the week, further supported by pattern
recognition and very strong surface features indicated in model solutions.
Therefore a slight risk of high winds is posted for these regions valid Nov
30-Dec 2.



Amplified mid-level troughing is favored to settle over the western CONUS,
bringing an extended period of snow to much of the Intermountain West. A slight
risk of heavy snow is posted for most of the Rockies for Nov 30-Dec 4 where the
GEFS PET for snow water equivalent (SWE) indicates at least a 20% chance of
3-day SWE accumulation to exceed the 85th percentile and at least 1 inch
through the middle of the forecast period. Uncalibrated probabilities from the
ECMWF show chances as high as 40% for 3-day snow accumulations to exceed a foot
through the middle of the week for much of the Central Rockies, warranting a
moderate risk of heavy snow for the Mountains of Colorado, as well as adjacent
Wyoming and New Mexico, valid Nov 30-Dec 2.



Models maintain strong surface low pressure and stormy conditions over the
Bering Sea through the middle of week-2, resulting in high winds over much of
southwestern Alaska. PETs from the ECMWF and GEFS show at least a 20% chance of
3-day maximum wind speeds exceeding 40mph across the coasts of western and
southern Alaska. The eastern extent of these enhanced winds might be a little
overdone though considering that surface low is favored to remain firmly in
place well west of the Alaska coast, likely limiting maximum wind speeds east
of the Alaskan Peninsula. A slight risk of high wind is posted for the Aleutian
Islands, the Alaskan Peninsula, and north along the coast of Bristol Bay for
Mov 30-Dec 3.

FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran

$$