729
FXUS21 KWNC 081847
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT June 08 2026

SYNOPSIS: Strong mid-level high pressure across the West Coast is anticipated
to peak by the end of week-1, weakening but lingering into the onset of week-2.
The potential for the multi-day heat wave across the West is anticipated to
decrease by the middle of week-2. A series of surface lows across the West may
support periods of high winds for parts of the West which could enhance
wildfire risk in some areas. Mid-level high pressure is predicted to build
across the southeastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) later in week-2, supporting
increased chances for heat across the region. A series of surface lows and
fronts may bring heavy precipitation to much of the eastern and south-central
contiguous U.S. (CONUS) at the beginning of the period in addition to enhanced
winds across the northeastern CONUS. A moderate risk of heavy precipitation is
designated for the southeastern CONUS at the beginning of the period.

HAZARDS

Moderate risk of extreme heat for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Tue, Jun 16.

Slight risk of extreme heat for parts of the West Coast, Nevada, and Southwest,
Tue-Wed, Jun 16-17.

Slight risk of high winds for coastal parts of southwestern Oregon and northern
California, Wed-Fri, Jun 17-19.

Slight risk of high winds for parts of the Interior West, Wed-Fri, Jun 17-19.

Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for parts of eastern Texas, the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeastern U.S., Tue-Thu, Jun 16-18.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for much of the eastern and south-central
CONUS, Tue-Thu, Jun 16-18.

Slight risk of high winds for parts of the northeastern CONUS, Tue-Thu, Jun
16-18.

Slight risk of extreme heat for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast,
Fri-Mon, Jun 19-22.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY JUNE 11 - MONDAY JUNE 15:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR TUESDAY JUNE 16 - MONDAY JUNE 22: Multiple ensemble means indicate
amplified ridging across the Northeast Pacific and West Coast is predicted to
peak by the end of week-1, lingering but weakening by the outset of week-2. The
ECENS, AI GEFS, and CMCE being more robust with this feature compared to the
GEFS. This pattern favors increased risk of extreme heat across parts of the
West. A moderate risk (40-60% chance) of extreme heat is designated for parts
of the Pacific Northwest for June 16 only. Updates for the slight risk
primarily include keeping the risk for heat further inland than the coast and
extension of heat into western Nevada. The slight risk (20-40% chance) of
extreme heat is indicated for parts of the West Coast, Nevada, and Southwest
that extends into June 17. The Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) show
increased chances for temperatures exceeding the 85th percentile
climatologically and 90 deg F across the Northwest (100 deg F across parts of
California), further supported by uncalibrated ensembles, heat tools, and the
experimental WPC HeatRisk Tool indicating supporting signals of major or higher
HeatRisk levels.





A series of surface lows across the West at the beginning of week-2 supports a
slight risk of periods of high winds for the Interior West June 17-19. Adjacent
surface high pressure over the Northeastern Pacific supports a slight risk of
high winds also for coastal parts of southwestern Oregon and northern
California for the same period. The PETs indicate at least a 20% chance for
many of these areas exceeding the 85th percentile and uncalibrated ECENS and
GEFS ensembles showing enhanced probabilities of wind speeds exceeding 20mph
(>34 mph for parts of the West Coast). Gusty wind speeds may enhance wildfire
risk especially across parts of the Four Corners region and Nevada, where the
National Interagency Fire Center indicates moderate risk of significant fire
potential by the end of week-1 and where there are currently active fires.





An amplified 500-hPa trough continues to be forecast over the Midwest,
supporting a series of slow-moving surface lows and stalled fronts tracking
across the south-central and eastern CONUS. Recent deterministic GFS runs are
highlighting the potential for a robust low-pressure system to track into the
Great Lakes region, with central pressure values modeled to drop near 980 mb.
This depth suggests a highly dynamic system capable of producing tight pressure
gradients and significant regional impacts. Strong southerly flow into the
south-central and eastern CONUS could bring enhanced moisture, further
supporting locally heavy rainfall, with conditions possibly being conducive to
strong thunderstorms in some of the risk areas. A moderate risk of heavy
precipitation for parts of eastern Texas, the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys, and Southeastern U.S. June 16-18 where the ECENS PET show at least a
30% chance of 3-day rainfall totals exceeding the 85th percentile and one inch,
further supported by greater than 50% chances in the uncalibrated guidance. The
GEFS uncalibrated also shows an enhanced rainfall signal in these regions
albeit slightly less widespread compared to the GEFS. A broader area is
highlighted with a slight risk of heavy precipitation across parts of the
south-central and eastern CONUS, June 16-18. Strong onshore flow may also
elevate water levels along the Gulf Coast in addition to flash flooding
possible.





Multiple model ensemble means favor a transition to more zonal mid-level flow
by mid week-2 across much of the CONUS with subtropical ridging strengthening
over the Southeast. A warming trend is anticipated thus for the southeastern
CONUS later in week-2, with a slight risk of extreme heat designated for parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. June 19-22. PETs show the most robust
chances (at least 20%) for temperatures exceeding the 85th percentile across
parts of the Florida peninsula and coastal Southeast, but with enhanced
dewpoints, heat index values are anticipated to be higher. Various heat tools
show the potential for temperatures in the risk area reaching or exceeding 100
deg F, with some exceeding 105 deg F.





The Rapid Onset Drought hazard has been discontinued in todays outlook due to
an increasingly wet pattern forecast during the next two weeks.





In Alaska, river ice breakup season is ending and even the rivers across the
North Slope are beginning to open. River breakup flooding can occur with little
or no notice as conditions on frozen rivers can change quickly, so please check
with the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center for the latest conditions and
advisories.

FORECASTER: Melissa Ou

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