460
FXUS21 KWNC 291854
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 29 2026

SYNOPSIS: A fast-moving area of mid-level low pressure depicted by multiple
model ensembles moving over the eastern Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) may result in
heavy precipitation for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast at the
outset of the week-2 period. Meanwhile, model solutions also indicate a very
potent and long-lived area of low pressure at the surface and mid-levels over
the North Pacific, bringing the potential for a variety of hazardous weather to
portions of the West Coast.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for much of the Central and Northern
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S., Fri, Nov 6.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for western portions of Washington, Oregon,
and California as far south as Cape Mendocino, Fri-Thu, Nov 6-12.

Slight risk of heavy snow for the Cascade and Klamath Mountains, Fri-Thu, Nov
6-12.

Slight risk of high wind for coastal portions of Washington, Oregon, and
California as far south as Cape Mendocino, Fri-Thu, Nov 6-12.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY NOVEMBER 01 - THURSDAY NOVEMBER 05:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR FRIDAY NOVEMBER 06 - THURSDAY NOVEMBER 12: Model ensembles depict a fast
shortwave trough moving over the eastern CONUS late in week-1 and into week-2.
While most of the potential for hazardous weather from this system is now in
the week-1 period, ensembles favor lingering heavy precipitation over the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. on day-8 (Nov 6). Ensemble mean 24hr
precipitation accumulations from the GEFS and ECENS indicate widespread totals
over a half inch from the Central Appalachians northeastward, with scattered
areas exceeding 1 inch. Model solutions quickly usher the heavy precipitation
offshore, thus a slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for much of the
Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast U.S. for Nov 6.



The bigger story from a hazards perspective is a potentially potent storm
system over the North Pacific. Multiple models depict a deep surface low and
mid-level trough to become established over the Gulf of Alaska by the outset of
week-2, in place with little change in intensity for all of the forecast
period. This feature has been noted in ensemble solutions for several days now,
with the big question being when the trough might shift further south, and with
it increasing potential for hazardous weather to extend into the West Coast.
For now the consensus among the model ensembles is that this system will likely
be a slow mover, but with remarkable staying power. However, for now most of
the energy from this storm system is favored to remain focused on the Canadian
coast. That said, there is still the potential for hazardous weather from this
system for portions of the Pacific Northwest. Uncalibrated probabilities from
the GEFS indicate at least a 20% chance of 3-day accumulated precipitation to
exceed an inch with the highest probabilities near Puget Sound, and 24hr
precipitation accumulation totals from the GEFS and ECENS range from a quarter
inch to an inch from Cape Mendocino northward from the Cascades to the coast.
Given this, the slight risks of heavy precipitation for lower elevations and
heavy snow for the Cascades and Klamath mountains remains posted in today`s
outlook, now extended to cover all of week-2 (Nov 6-12). A slight risk of high
winds also remains posted along the coast from Cape Mendocino to the
U.S.-Canada border, valid Nov 6-12.



While this possibly potent storm system is likely to result in strong winds and
heavy precipitation along the southern and southeastern coast of Alaska as
well, hazardous thresholds are not expected to be exceeded so no hazards are
posted for Alaska at this time. In southwestern Alaska, much above normal
temperatures are forecast in week-2, which is likely to bring air temperatures
above 32 deg F. This may delay ongoing river freezing. Residents are advised to
be wary of very thin ice on shallow bodies of water.

FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran

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