476
FXUS21 KWNC 261817
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 26 2026

SYNOPSIS: Strong mid-level high pressure is forecast to bring a prolonged heat
wave to the West through the beginning of August. Antecedent dryness along with
the likelihood of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation
during the next two weeks supports an increased risk for the Rapid Onset of
Drought to parts of the Great Plains and Corn Belt. A moisture surge associated
with a tropical cyclone tracking northwest across the East Pacific along with
the ongoing/predicted heat wave favors a renewal of an enhanced Monsoon during
early August. Possible surface lows forming in the lee of the Rockies may
support periods of high winds across the Northern and Central Rockies at the
beginning of the period, which may lead to enhanced wildfire risk where hot and
dry conditions are anticipated.

HAZARDS

High risk of extreme heat for portions of the Great Basin, and adjacent
regions, Mon, Aug 3.

Moderate risk of extreme heat for portions of the Southern Plains, Southwest,
Great Basin, Rockies, and California, Mon-Wed, Aug 3-5.

Slight risk of extreme heat for most of the western two-thirds of the CONUS and
Southeast U.S., Mon-Sun, Aug 3-9.

Slight risk of extreme heat for the Middle and Upper Mississippi, and Ohio
Valleys, Great Lakes and Northern Plains, Mon-Wed, Aug 3-5.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Desert Southwest, Mon-Sun,
Aug 3-9.

Slight risk of high winds for the Northern and Central Plains, Mon-Wed, Aug 3-5.

Rapid onset drought (ROD) possible for parts of the Great Plains, Middle
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 29 - SUNDAY AUGUST 02:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR MONDAY AUGUST 03 - SUNDAY AUGUST 09: The GEFS and ECENS are in good
agreement and remain consistent in showing a highly amplified 500-hPa ridge
peaking in strength by the end of week-1 when it becomes centered over the
western Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) before becoming weaker by the start of week-2.
This anomalous mid-level ridge continues to support a lingering high risk (>60%
chance) of extreme heat for portions of the Great Basin, Aug 2. A moderate risk
(40-60% chance) is highlighted across portions of the Southern Plains,
Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and California, Aug 3-5, with a continuing
reduction in spatial coverage over the Southern Plains compared to the past
several forecasts. A slight risk (20-40% chance) is designated for most of the
western two-thirds of the CONUS and Southeast U.S. Heat tools indicate greater
than 30-40% chances of actual temperatures or heat index values exceeding 105
Deg F across parts of the Great Plains, Desert Southwest, Texas, and California
Central Valley, with the GEFS showing higher values of 110 Deg F. The National
Blend of Models indicates near or record daily highs for parts of the
southwestern CONUS at the beginning of week-2, as well as near to record
nighttime lows across the southern tier of the CONUS, providing little to no
relief in these areas.



Surface low formation in the lee of the Rockies may help to propel a front
across the Plains and into the Great Lakes. Ahead of this system, warm moist
air from the Gulf of America may bring another round of extreme heat to
portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and adjacent
areas. Therefore, an additional slight risk of extreme heat is posted for these
regions for Aug 3-5. This is likely to be a more transient heat wave relative
to the extreme heat ongoing this week. These surface lows may bring enhanced
winds to the region. A slight risk of high winds is designated across the
Northern and Central Plains, Aug 3-5, where wind gusts could exceed 34 kts (~39
mph). Gusty conditions combined with hot, dry weather may enhance wildfire risk
for some of these areas.



According to the U.S. Drought Monitor valid July 21, abnormal dryness (D0) and
moderate drought (D1) expanded this past week across the Dakotas where Rapid
Onset Drought (ROD) is underway. Increasing 30-day precipitation deficits, high
evapotranspiration rates, and the increased chance of above-normal temperatures
and below-normal precipitation during the next two weeks support an enhanced
risk of ROD across even more of the Great Plains and Corn Belt.



With extreme heat ongoing over the Southwest, and favored to continue through
much of the next 10 days, thermal low formation over the region, plus a
favorable location for the mid-level ridge as it weakens, would support a
resurgence of the Southwest Monsoon early in August. Hurricane Genevieve is
forecast to move away from Mexico and is not as supportive of a true Gulf Surge
event at this time. Even still, above normal precipitable water is favored over
the Southwest by middle of week-2. Therefore, a temporally broad slight risk of
heavy precipitation is forecast over parts of the Southwest, for all of week-2.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

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