752
FXUS21 KWNC 202049
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST November 20 2025

SYNOPSIS: Strong mid-level low pressure extending from northern Canada into the
southwestern Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) is favored to enhance surface winds and
usher Arctic air deep into the Great Plains, potentially resulting in the first
freeze of the season for portions of the Southern Plains. A series of surface
lows across the West increases the likelihood of heavy snow for high elevations
across the Northern and Central Rockies. A range of hazardous weather including
heavy precipitation, high winds and heavy snow are also possible for much of
the Mississippi Valley and across parts of the Upper Midwest and Northeast as
some of these lows and associated fronts move northeastward, especially in lake
effect-prone regions.

HAZARDS

Moderate risk of heavy snow for the southern and eastern shores of Lakes Erie
and Ontario, northwestern Lower Michigan, and much of Upper Michigan, Fri-Sun,
Nov 28-30.

Slight risk of heavy snow for much of the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and
northern New England, Fri-Sun, Nov 28-30.

Slight risk of heavy snow for the Northern and Central Rockies as well as the
Wasatch Mountains, Fri-Tue, Nov 28-Dec 2.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for much of the Lower and Middle Mississippi
Valley, as well as portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, Sun-Tue, Nov
30-Dec 2.

Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for portions of the Desert
Southwest, Southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley, Fri-Tue, Nov 28-Dec 2.

Slight risk of high winds for much of the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S., Fri,
Nov 28.

Slight risk of high winds for much of the Southern and Central Rockies as well
as portions of the Desert Southwest, and Northern and Central Plains, Fri-Mon,
Nov 28-Dec 1.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY NOVEMBER 23 - THURSDAY NOVEMBER 27:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR FRIDAY NOVEMBER 28 - THURSDAY DECEMBER 04: Over the past few days ensemble
solutions from the ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE have had a variety of depictions of
synoptic conditions over North America including some large pattern shifts, but
nonetheless forecast confidence for the week-2 period is higher than what might
be expected given some common themes that have persisted in forecast guidance.
Model solutions have consistently indicated a surge of cold air from the high
latitudes into the CONUS by the beginning of week-2, forced in part by either
blocking high pressure in the high latitudes, deep troughing over the western
and central CONUS, or a combination of the two. Regardless of the forcing
mechanism, colder air is favored to push far enough south to potentially bring
the first
seasons freeze to portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.
 This is well indicated by the Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs), which indica
te at least a 20% chance of minimum temperatures to fall below the 15th climatol
ogical percentile and 32F for much of central and northern Texas as well as nort
hern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, areas that have yet to experience their fi
rst freeze. Therefore a slight risk of much below-normal temperatures is posted
for these regions for Nov 28-Dec 2. Colder temperatures are expected north of th
is region, however with the seasons first freeze having already occurred no oth
er regions are highlighted for cold weather risks as any minimum temperatures ar
e not expected to fall below advisory or hazard criteria.



Model solutions als
o depict a series of shortwave troughs moving across the CONUS, bringing periods
 of enhanced winds and precipitation to various regions from the Rockies to the
Northeast. At the outset of week-2 a surface low is favored to be moving off the
 Northeast U.S. and into the North Atlantic. On day-8 (Nov 28) a strong pressure
 gradient with associated high winds over New England is indicated, with ensembl
e mean wind speeds exceeding 20mph across the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S., wa
rranting a slight risk of high winds for these regions for Nov 28. Models develo
p a second low pressure over the Great Lakes bringing widespread snow across the
 Northern Tier, especially for areas prone to lake-effect snow. A slight risk of
 heavy snow is posted from the Northern Plains east across the Great Lakes and n
orthern New England, and a moderate risk of heavy snow the southern and eastern
shore of Lakes Erie and Ontario, as well as much of the Upper Peninsula of Michi
gan and northwestern Lower Michigan, all for Nov 28-30. Further snow is possible
 beyond these days, but confidence is lower regarding accumulation totals.



M
odels also indicate the potential for heavy precipitation further south, over th
e Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Both the ECMWF and GEFS PETs show at least
a 20% chance of 3-day precipitation totals to exceed the 85th percentile and at
least 1 inch during the middle portion of week-2 warranting a slight risk of hea
vy precipitation for Nov 30-Dec 2. Winds are also favored to be enhanced along a
nd behind this disturbance. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean wind speeds exceed 20mp
h episodically over much of the Southern Plains as well as the Southern and Cent
ral Rockies through the middle of the week, therefore a slight risk of high wind
s is posted for these regions valid Nov 28-Dec 1.



A series of weak shortwave
troughs are favored to move over the western CONUS, bringing periods of snow to
portions of the Intermountain West. A slight risk of heavy snow is posted for th
e Northern and Central Rockies for Nov 28-Dec 2, where the GEFS PET for snow wat
er equivalent (SWE) indicates at least a 20% chance of 3-day SWE accumulation to
 exceed the 85th percentile and at least 1 inch through the middle of week-2. Ac
cumulating snowfall is also indicated further south into portions of New Mexico
and Arizona, but accumulations are not expected to exceed hazardous criteria.

F
ORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran

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