587
FXUS21 KWNC 142054
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST November 14 2025

SYNOPSIS: Mid-level high pressure over Alaska and mid-level low pressure over
the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) are both predicted to strengthen early in
the week-2 forecast period.  Mid-level high pressure is also forecast across
the eastern CONUS. This mid-level pattern is expected to drive various hazards
across the Lower 48 states during the week-two forecast, including an inflow of
Arctic air, heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds for portions of the West.
Parts of the central and eastern CONUS may be impacted by heavy precipitation,
heavy snow, gusty winds, and flooding.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for eastern portions of the Southern Plains,
Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and adjacent
parts of the Southeast, Sat-Sun, Nov 22-23, and Thu-Fri, Nov 27-28.

Slight risk of heavy snow for much of the mountainous West, Sat-Fri, Nov 22-28.

Slight risk of heavy snow over much of the Northern Plains and Minnesota,
Tue-Fri, Nov 25-28.

Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures across much of the western half
of the CONUS, Mon-Fri, Nov 24-28.

Slight risk of high winds over much of the eastern CONUS, Sat-Sun, Nov 22-23.

Slight risk of high winds from the West coast eastward across the Intermountain
region and Rockies to the High Plains, Sat-Fri, Nov 22-28.

Flooding possible in the general vicinity of the Arklatex.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY NOVEMBER 17 - FRIDAY NOVEMBER 21:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR SATURDAY NOVEMBER 22 - FRIDAY NOVEMBER 28: Early in the week-2 period, an
amplifying mid-level ridge over Alaska is expected to contribute to the
deepening of a mid-level trough downstream over the western CONUS. This
scenario is predicted to bring anomalously warm air to Alaska and anomalously
cold Arctic air to the western Lower 48 states. Significantly anomalously warm
temperatures predicted in southwestern Alaska favors precipitation in the form
of rain rather than snow for many areas, which could lead to a number of
hazardous impacts including coastal erosion, flooding, and a decrease in the
stability of ice on rivers and lakes. For the western CONUS, temperatures are
expected to fall below 20 deg F in many areas, and a hard freeze (28 deg F) is
a significant concern for near-coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest,
including Seattle and Portland. These minimum temperatures could bring an end
to the growing season across Oregon`s Willamette Valley, and are supported by
0z runs of the ECENS and GEFS. A slight risk of much below-normal temperatures
are favored across much of the western half of the CONUS, Nov 24-28.



As the mid-level trough deepens across the West and progresses slowly eastward,
a slight risk for heavy snow is posted for much of the mountainous West, Nov
22-28. This is consistent with raw (uncalibrated) snowfall guidance from the
ECENS and GEFS, with predicted snowfall totals in excess of 6 inches, and
locally a foot or more in the highest elevations. Broad cyclonic curvature and
cold air aloft is expected to maintain the necessary instability to generate
significant snowfall across the West, significantly boosting mountain snowpacks
in the process. In addition to the predicted arctic air and heavy snow hazards
across the West, increased chances for gusty winds of 20-30 mph or more are
indicated by the ECENS and GEFS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) wind
guidance and further supported by forecast 10-meter wind speeds from the 0z
ECENS ensemble mean, and the expectation of tighter surface pressure gradients.
These tighter pressure gradients are expected to be near the southern edges of
advancing arctic air masses surging southward across the West. Accordingly, a
slight risk of high winds is favored across the Western CONUS for the duration
of week-2.



Over the Central CONUS, leeside cyclogenesis is predicted by the GEFS and ECENS
models, with several surface low pressure centers tracking from the vicinity of
eastern Colorado towards the Upper Great Lakes region, which is a very common
storm track for late November. A slight risk of heavy snow (>85th historical
percentile and 4-6+ inches) is posted for the northern flank of one of these
disturbances as it tracks towards the Upper Great Lakes region during the
second half of the forecast period. The area expected to be most affected by
this storm system includes the northern Great Plains and portions of the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure off the Southeast coast favors an
increase in moist southerly return flow and heavy precipitation across
south-central and southeastern portions of the CONUS as far north as the Ohio
Valley, on Nov 22-23. A second round of heavy precipitation is indicated by
multiple numerical models on Nov 27-28, in response to another passing
disturbance. Precipitation amounts of at least 1-inch are forecast (3-day
period), and as much as 4-7 inches of precipitation are predicted for much of
this same area during the preceding week-1 period. As a result, an area of
possible flooding is deemed most likely in the Arklatex region.



In the East, dynamical models indicate a frontal system anticipated to pass
through the region early in the period, accompanied by gusty northwesterly
winds of 20-25 mph. Lake-enhanced precipitation is expected to be fairly light
in the wake of this system. However, if the arctic air predicted to impact the
western CONUS during week-2 moves across the eastern CONUS after the week-2
period, the colder air streaming over the relatively warm waters of the Great
Lakes will most likely result in more substantial lake-effect precipitation for
the typical climatological snowbelt areas downwind of the Lakes.

FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa

$$