120
FXUS63 KTOP 021845
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
145 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms this afternoon could produce small hail and gusty
  winds, but severe weather is unlikely.

- Additional showers and storms are possible (15-30% chance) on
  Wednesday.

- Higher chances for more widespread rain come Thursday and
  especially this weekend.

- Temperatures remain near or slightly above normal, with highs
  in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A convectively enhanced perturbation is moving across eastern Kansas
and western Missouri this afternoon with a remnant outflow boundary
draped from Belleville to Junction City to Council Grove. While
large-scale ascent is weak, convergence along this boundary in a
weakly capped and unstable airmass has lead to the development of
isolated to scattered storms. Effective shear of 20-25 kts could
support a few updrafts capable of producing gusty winds and/or small
hail, but the severe potential is low. Slow storm motions and high
PWATs could lead to heavy downpours underneath any of these storms
before activity wanes with sunset this evening.

A complex of showers and storms that develops across western Kansas
this evening will advance northeast towards the forecast area into
Wednesday. Guidance varies in how long into the day and how far east
these showers and storms will persist, but think there is at least a
low chance for some showers/storms through the day Wednesday given a
similar environment to today. A shortwave works to push the mid-level
ridge east and brings the next chance for showers and storms to the
area Wednesday night into Thursday. A closed upper low slowly lifts
northeast across the Plains late this week with southwesterly flow
ahead of this feature leading to chances for showers and storms Thursday
through the weekend. Guidance has come into better agreement in the
closed low moving across the area Saturday into Sunday, which brings
the best chances for more widespread precipitation. Weak shear should
limit the overall severe potential, with a slightly higher chance
as the closed low approaches this weekend. While it won`t be a
washout, GEFS and ENS QPF means are 1- 1.5" across the area, with
a signal for higher amounts depending on where consecutive rounds
of storms track. Temperatures hold near to slightly above average
over the next week, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail. KMHK could briefly drop to MVFR
with scattered showers or storms through the afternoon. Have input a
PROB30 group at KMHK to account for this potential. East-southeast
winds around 10kts weaken this evening before becoming southeasterly
Wednesday morning. Additional showers or isolated storms could approach
KMHK again after 12z Wed, but confidence is too low to include.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan