213
FXUS63 KTOP 261025
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
525 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of thunderstorms possible through the weekend.
  There is the potential for severe weather with these storms.

- Temperatures heat back up on Friday with heat indicies between
  100 and 110 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Convection is moving out of the forecast area and the weather is
forecast to be quieter for the rest of the day with mid level
ridging to the west and no obvious wave immediately up stream.
Surface ridging nosing into northeast KS is expected to give us
a northerly winds and cooler temperatures in the middle 80s to
around 90.

By tonight and into the weekend, models show a quasi zonal
pattern developing with ridging to the south and the mean
westerlies across the northern states. This sets up the
potential for perturbations to move across the central plains
with a relatively hot and moist airmass in the boundary layer.
The first of these looks to move into the plains late tonight
with possibly another wave within the flow passing through
Thursday night. The thunderstorm forecast and potential severity
looks to be more of a meso scale exercise with convection
having a significant influence on the resulting environment.
Just for Thursday, the 06Z NAM is not as aggressive in the
moisture recovery into northeast KS and as a result the forecast
POPs have been lowered across eastern KS. So there is POPs in
the forecast into the weekend but the predictability may be
lower than normal and adjustments to this are likely.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Models have shown the potential for some stratocu to linger
behind the convection, but OBs show no low clouds and satellite
indicates clear skies as the anvil moves east. So will go with a
more optimistic forecast and keep VFR conditions with a east
and northeasterly wind.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters