410
FXUS63 KTOP 281102
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
602 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of rain are expected Tuesday evening through Thursday with the
  heaviest rain likely late Wednesday into Thursday.

- Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2.5" are expected. Locally higher
  amounts of 4-5" could lead to flooding, particularly towards north-
  central KS.

- While a lesser hazard compared to the heavy rain risk, a few strong
  storms could also occur, particularly towards central KS Wed.
  evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning depicts a deep upper low dropping
southeast across California. This is beginning to lift Category 3
Hurricane Polo northeast towards Baja California, where it will
quickly weaken as it passes over the northern Mexico mountains and
is absorbed into the upper low. Here across the Plains, upper
ridging is now centered overhead, leading to a quieter look to the
radar compared to the past few days. Low-level easterly flow is
keeping some moisture and low clouds around, so can`t completely
rule out a brief sprinkle this morning. But these low clouds should
lift north and begin to scatter out by the afternoon, allowing
temperatures to warm to near 80.

Low-level winds will turn southerly by Tuesday as the upper low
slowly moves east across the Southwest. Deep moisture will quickly
advect north as a response. A lead impulse moving east onto the
Plains could lead to rain chances beginning by Tuesday evening
across central Kansas, but most of the area should stay dry through
the daylight hours Tuesday. Temperatures look to climb into the 80s,
especially across eastern KS where cloud cover stays thinner.
Tuesday night into Wednesday night, rain chances increase further as
low pressure associated with the remnants of Polo lift northeast
onto the High Plains. The track of this low still looks to stay
mostly to our west, along with the heaviest rainfall amounts, but
more rain still appears likely across the western half of the
forecast area. The best heavy rain chances area-wide still look to
be Wednesday evening into Thursday evening. This will be as the
upper low approaches Kansas and its moisture interacts with a cold
front pushing southeast across the area. Still some differences with
when this front will fully pass through the area, but most model
guidance drops off rain chances by early Friday as as cooler and
drier air filters in.

Turning to actual impacts, not a lot of change with this forecast
package with regards to total rainfall amounts. Still expecting
widespread amounts of 1-2.5", with a few locally higher totals of 3-
5". Given current hydrologic conditions, 1-3" of rain should be
manageable, and wouldn`t result in much notable flooding. The main
flooding risk will tied to wherever those locally higher amounts
fall, especially if 3-4" can fall in a short 6 hour period. Rainfall
rates and flash flooding potential will likely be highest along the
boundary Wednesday PM into Thursday evening, as instability
strengthens some towards north-central KS with the approach of the
upper low. On a related note, can`t rule out some stronger storms
during this period as wind shear also increases. But the heavy rain
should still be the main hazard.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The back edge of the borderline MVFR/IFR stratus has
cleared KTOP and KFOE, and should clear KMHK in another couple
hours. Broken low-end VFR stratus will likely stick around for a bit
longer into the early afternoon before clearing out. Winds stay
light and easterly through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese