548
FXUS63 KTOP 140846
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
346 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and active pattern builds in through the end of the week and
  into next week, with near daily storm chances.

- Some storms each day (Today through TODO) could be severe. See
  discussion below for further details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery and upper air
analysis shows an amplified through across the eastern US. An upper
level ridge was located across the Plains. An upper level trough was
located across the Great Basin and northern high Plains.

The 6z surface map showed a ridge of high pressure extending from the
Great Lakes states southwest across southern MO, then southwest into
northeast OK. A deep lee surface trough was located across east
central CO. Temperatures were in the mid 50s east, with lower to
mid 60s west. The airmass continues to be drier, with dewpoints in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. The richer gulf moisture was located
along the southeast TX coast.

Today through Tonight:

The 850mb analysis showed richer moisture (Tds of 13-15 deg C)
advecting northwest into south central and southwest KS. Numerical
model solutions show this richer moisture at 850mb will advect
northeast towards east central KS around sunrise. The richer
moisture advection at 850mb will cause isentropic lift to develop
across east central and northeast KS towards 12Z. The isentropic lift
may cause a few showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms to
develop between 12Z-14Z. These elevated showers and storms will move
east int MO by 15Z. MUCAPEs will increase to 800-1200 J/KG across
eastern KS, thus some of the elevates storms may produce small hail.

Skies will become mostly sunny to partly cloudy. The H5 trough
across the Great Basin and northern high Plains will move east
across the norther Plains. The southern fringe of the H5 trough axis
will have a more amplified perturbation moving east across NE into
northern KS. However an EML will overspread the warm sector causing a
capping inversion. Several CAMs show the dryline shifting east into
west central KS where high based thunderstorms may develop southeast
of Colby, to Great Bend. However, dewpoints will mix out just ahead
of the dryline and temperatures will reach the mid 90s with
dewpoints in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Inverted V sounding
may cause damaging wind gusts across west central KS late this
afternoon. But these high based storms look to dissipate after
sunset. As the ascent ahead of the mid level perturbation and
combined with isentropic lift, may produce a few elevated storms
across the CWA during the evening hours, with quarter-half dollar
size hail being the greatest hazard. However, 3 CAMs are showing
isolated surface based storms developing during the early evening
hours across the western counties of the CWA. If this were to occur,
then the threat for large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts would
be possible. But looking at the forecast soundings for the 3 CAMs
showing surface based storms, there remains a strong cap in place.

Highs Today today will reach the lower 80s east to mid to upper 80s
west. The southwest counties may reach the lower 90s, especially if
the dryline pushes a bit farther east.

Friday and Friday night:

Once again the capping inversion looks fairly strong and no surface
based storms may develop. There will be a weak front across the far
northern counties of the CWA. This boundary may provide some
convergence for isolated surface based storms to develop. The mid
level flow looks a bit weaker, thus effective shear will be only 20
KTS with 25 to 30 KTS along the NE border. MLCAPES will be 2500-3500
J/kg along and south of the boundary, thus any surface based storm
will be severe and may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts,
if storms can develop. Highs on Friday will be warmer with upper 80s
to lower 90s east and mid 90s west.

Saturday through Monday night:

An H5 trough will dig southeast from the central CA coast into the
southwest US. The southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will
increase to 30 to 40 KTS across western KS. A deeper lee side low
will develop Saturday afternoon across southwest KS. A surface
dryline will then punch northeast across southwest KS. A weak front
will extend east-northeast along the NE and KS border. The
combination of effective shear and MLCAPES of 3000-4000 J/KG will
cause supercell thunderstorms to develop along the dryline in west
central KS. Supercell thunderstorms may also develop along a warm
front across north central KS. Forecast hodographs are curved and
these supercell will be capable of producing tornadoes. After sunset
these supercell storms will begin to congeal into line segments and
move across portions of the CWA overnight. These line segments may
be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. After
midnight, these storms will become more elevated and may weaken. I
cannot rule out a few supercell thunderstorms during the early
evening hours along the warm front across the northwest counties of
the CWA

The same set up is expected for Sunday, with the dryline pushing
east into west central KS during the afternoon hours. sufficient
vertical wind shear and inability for supercell thunderstorms to
develop across west central KS during the late afternoon and early
eventing hours due to convergence along the dryline. The warm front
will lift northward into central NE. Also, capping inversion may
strengthen Sunday afternoon across the warm sector. But overnight,
any supercells that congeal into line segments will move east across
portions of the CWA. The line segments may cause large hail and
damaging wind gusts during the evening hours. The storms may become
more elevated and weaken after midnight.

Monday, the main H5 trough will amplify across the Four Corners
region. A 50-60 KT H5 jet Max will list northeast across western KS
into NE. Rich moisture will be in plaice and MLCAPES will likely
increase within the warm sector to 2500 to 3500 J/KG The latest ECMWF
solutions shows a potential tornado out break across the Plains. The
GFS model solution is different with a the H5 trough farther east
and less amplified. If the GFS solution were to verify a strong cold
front will shift southeast across the CWA with a squall line
developing ahead of the front across eastern KS Monday afternoon.
The primary hazard with a line of storms will be damaging wind gusts,
and possibly a few weaker mesovortex tornadoes. The triple point
would be across southwest OK. The tornadic supercells would remain
across far southwest OK into west central TX. The Canadian model is
more similar to the ECMWF, which would show the potential of a
tornado outbreak across the Plains. It will be interesting to see
which model solution ends up verifying.


The more progressive GFS model solution will bring the surface front
southeast of the CWA Sunday night, brining an end to the severe
thunderstorm threat.

The slower Canadian and ECMWF solution will not bring the front
southeast across the CWA until Tuesday afternoon. The effective
shear and instability may result in a squall line develop along the
front Tuesday afternoon. There may be a damaging wind threat for east
central and northeast KS Tuesday afternoon, and the squall line may
continue along the front into Tuesday evening across the southeast
counties of the CWA.

Tuesday through Thursday:

The H5 trough across the central and southern high Plains will
weaken as it shears apart with the northern branch lifting northeast
across the upper Midwest. The southern stream section will slowly
weaken across NM. A surface ridge will build southwest from the
upper Midwest into northeast KS. A few perturbation from the NM H5
trough may lift northeast across the central Plains for a few rain
showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday and Thursday.  Highs Tuesday
and Wednesday will only reach into the 70s. Thursday will be a bit
warmer with highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A line of showers
and elevated storms may develop west of the KFOE and KTOP terminals
towards 12Z, then move across the terminals. I placed a VCTS from
12-14Z TUE for KFOE and KTOP. There may be another chance of isolated
storms in the vicinity of the terminals this evening. But there is
too much uncertainty to place in the TAFs. Southeast winds will
increase by late morning to 12 to 18 KTS with gusts to 25 to 32 KTS
and continue into the early evening before the gusts diminish after
2Z FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperature for Friday, May 15

                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           95 (1944)               94
Concordia        91 (1944, 2012)         95


Record High Temperature for Saturday, May 16

                 Record (Year)           Forecast
Topeka           95 (1931)               90
Concordia        93 (2019)               91

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan
CLIMATE...Gargan