956
FXUS63 KTOP 120740
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
240 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat continues through Saturday, with the Heat Advisory and
Extreme Heat Warning still in place. Heat indices in the 100-110
range expected.

- Low storm chances each day along and north of a stalled frontal
boundary. Marginal risk for a few strong to severe storms, mainly
Thursday and Friday evenings.

- Cold front finally brings temperatures back towards average Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The main forecast concern in the short term is a weakening bow-echo
that has moved southeast from South Dakota into northern Nebraska.
While the core of this bow and the associated severe risk should stay
north into Nebraska, it is increasingly likely that its outflow
boundary will push into northeast Kansas during the daytime hours
today. Depending on the strength of this outflow and the amount of
lingering showers and weak storms behind it, this may help to limit
afternoon temperatures and heat indices by a few degrees,
particularly towards the Nebraska border. It will be hot and humid
regardless though, particularly south of wherever the outflow
boundary ends up before washing out. Will keep the current Heat
Advisory and Heat Warning in place, as heat indices will most likely
still approach 110 along/south of I-70 and 105 north of I-70. A few
more showers and storms may redevelop overnight north of the boundary
near the Nebraska border, but weak forcing and strong CIN should
keep the overall thunderstorm potential low.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will remain hot. Temperatures will
likely remain a few degrees lower along the stationary boundary near
the Nebraska border, but most places elsewhere will climb into the
upper 90s with heat indices in the mid/upper 100s. Low temperatures
only in the upper 70s will cause additional heat stress. There will
be a continued potential for a few scattered storms to develop along
and just north of the boundary, most likely towards north-central KS
Thursday and Friday evenings. Inverted-V profiles with modest shear
suggest the potential for northeastward moving clusters with
isolated damaging winds and perhaps some small hail.

We finally see some improvement by Sunday as the front begins to
push southward through the area. There is still some uncertainty in
guidance in exactly how fast it will move through. A slower frontal
progression would likely keep temperatures across east-central KS in
the upper 90s, while a faster frontal push could keep temperatures
in the 80s area-wide. Regardless, model spread is lower for Monday,
with post-frontal high temperatures mostly back in the 80s. Some
continued low chances for showers and storms will possible along and
behind the front, but with little upper support coverage should
remain scattered.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Boundary layer looks to stay generally mixed enough that
we`ll see low-level turbulence instead of LLWS, though some brief
periods more akin to LLWS could occur. There is an increasing signal
for morning storms over Nebraska to push an outflow boundary through
the terminals early afternoon, switching winds around 10 kts from
the south to the east/northeast. Still not fully confident this will
occur, but seems more likely than not at this point.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Highest Minimum Temperature Records

August 12
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          81 (1913)         79
Concordia       80 (1943)         78

August 13
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          85 (1936)         79
Concordia       83 (1936)         78

August 14
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          84 (1936)         78
Concordia       79 (1913)         74

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012.
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Reese