857
FXUS63 KTOP 161050
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
550 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster of strong to severe storms is anticipated to impact portions
  of northeast Kansas this evening with damaging wind gusts and
  large hail being the main hazards.

- While there is a low confidence for storms to continue or redevelop
  Tuesday afternoon, the most likely scenario is a line of
  severe storms tracking eastward Tuesday evening into the
  overnight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and locally heavy
  rainfall are the main hazards with a lower attendant risk for
  tornadoes.

- Heat indices peak from 100 to 104 area wide Friday afternoon,
  followed heat indices near 100 degrees on Saturday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Several embedded impulses observed within the zonal flow from the
high plains region this morning. The closest decaying MCS over
central NE is bringing high clouds back to northeast Kansas into the
morning and afternoon. The high clouds insulate temperatures this
morning, down to the low 70s. Cannot rule out patchy fog in low
lying areas, especially over far east central Kansas. Monday is very
similar to Sunday with light southerly winds around 10 to 15 mph and
highs in the upper 80s. Focus for storm chances this evening is
highest in north central Kansas. As an upper impulse enters the
western high plains of Nebraska, interacting with a cold front and
sparking scattered severe storms that are progged to track southward
overnight. Timing of these storms reaching northern Kansas are
somewhat varied with the NAM and RAP being closer to sunrise Tuesday
whereas the HRRR, Fv3 and HREF among others are earlier around
midnight, seemingly more plausible given previous trends. Elevated
instability is not impressive (~2000 J/KG) with modest effective
shear near 30 kts. If the cells are able to congeal into an MCS,
damaging wind gusts would be the main hazard, followed by large hail
with any embedded stronger cores.

General weakening of the cluster is anticipated in the morning,
turning into uncertainty on the evolution and severity of
convection later in the day Tuesday. Some short term guidance that
develops the convection earlier in the evening, has weakening
showers or dry conditions by Tuesday afternoon. Others however, keep
the line of storms moving through Tuesday, perhaps redeveloping by
late afternoon where CAPE values approach 4000 J/KG towards north
central areas. Good directional and speed shear to 50 kts would
signal the potential for supercells capable of producing very large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes if storms are rooted along
a boundary. Upper forcing and source for initiation however is not
apparent. In addition, if shower activity lingers longer into the
morning and afternoon, this would limit the time for the atmosphere
to recover. On Tuesday evening, models remain consistent in a
poignant MCS developing from the higher terrain, reaching northeast
Kansas during the late evening to Wednesday morning time frame.
MUCAPE remains on the higher side (3000+ J/KG) while the slower
progression and back building of convection behind the front
enhances the risk for flooding, in addition to the large hail and
damaging wind gusts. This activity should clear the area on
Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts will greatly depend on the track
of the MCS Monday and Tuesday evenings, generally between 1 and
2 inches.

Upper ridge builds in from Wednesday onward, providing a break from
the rain chances but also warming temperatures to uncomfortable
levels as heat indices reach the low 100s Friday afternoon, followed
by the upper 90s for heat indices this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR at terminals as southerly winds increase to around 10 kts
sustained aft 16Z. High clouds increase tonight as a cluster of
TSRA gradually weakens southeast from north central Kansas.
There is a low chance for these storms to impact sites near 12Z
Tuesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto