274
FXUS63 KTOP 041918
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
218 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through the holiday
 weekend into Tuesday. Peak heat indices each afternoon are around
 105 degrees, leading to the increased risk for heat-related
 illnesses.

- Low probability for scattered precipitation chances Sunday evening
 and again Tuesday evening through the late week as a cold front
 attempts to approach the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The potent sub-tropical ridge per water vapor imagery continues to
dominate the southeast CONUS, pushing west and north into the
central plains. Boundary layer mixing overnight continues to inhibit
the strong radiational cooling as morning lows are generally mild in
the low 70s. During the daytime, strong warm and moisture advection
aid gusty south winds from 10 to 15 mph, increasing to over 20 mph
sustained by Tuesday. Given the synoptic setup, confidence remains
high that most of the CWA will see peak heat indices from 100 to 105
degrees this holiday weekend through as late as Wednesday. The
Extreme Heat Warning remains in place with no changes made through
Tuesday evening. Glimpses of heat relief are seen on the northern
periphery of the ridge by Sunday afternoon as a back door cold front
slides south into northern MO, impacting portions of far northeast
and eastern Kansas in the form of cloud cover, somewhat cooler temps
and/or a few showers/storms (less than 20%). Otherwise strong
subsidence and capping in the mid levels should suppress organized
convection in our area through at least Tuesday.

Latest ensemble guidance begins to diverge further regarding the
track of a upper shortwave trough skirting the northern plains and
Great Lakes by the middle of next week. In turn, this would shift a
cold front southward towards north central Kansas, returning the
chances for showers and storms and perhaps slightly cooler temps.
Several ensemble members however hold the boundary further north,
translated by overall NBM probabilities of QPF greater than 0.01
inches being around 20% or less. For the time being, will maintain
the low chance pops through the middle of next week and a less
certain temp forecast in the low 90s for highs. There persists a 10
degree spread from 25th-75th percentiles for high temps Wed.-Fri.
and will depend on placement of the front and subsequent cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR at sites with gusty south winds around 20 kts in the afternoon,
calming below 10 kts after 00Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 5  Topeka     76, set in 1925 & 1983    73
 Concordia  78, set in 1899           76

September 6  Topeka     78, set in 1970           74
 Concordia  81, set in 1939           75

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...22/Poage