110
FXUS63 KTOP 041905
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
205 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low chance for severe storms remains this afternoon and
  evening. Damaging winds, hail up to quarter size, and a
  tornado or two are possible.

- Rounds of showers and storms producing 1-2" per hour rainfall rates
  could lead to flooding, mainly north of Interstate 70. A
  Flood Watch remains in effect into early Friday.

- Showers and storms may impact northern Kansas Friday evening/night
  and bring a low risk for severe weather and heavy rainfall.

- A higher chance for showers and storms comes Saturday night
  into Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall is possible again,
  most likely across east central Kansas.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A mid-level shortwave is moving east across the Central Plains this
afternoon with a MCV spinning across central Kansas. An uncapped and
unstable airmass has lead to the development of widely scattered
thunderstorms and coverage has been increasing as the MCV
approaches. While deep shear is rather weak, low-level shear
increases as the MCV moves towards the area, supporting
multicellular structures or even some supercellular structures. Hail
up to quarter size and 60 MPH wind gusts are the main severe hazard.
Steep low-level lapse rates could stretch existing surface vorticity
which, along with the elongation of the low-level hodograph, leads
to the potential for a tornado or two to spin up. The flooding
threat remains as well with HREF members showing the potential for 1-
2" per hour rainfall rates, with best chances for repeated rounds of
rain north of Interstate 70. Rainfall totals of 1-2 are likely with
localized areas up to 4 inches possible. The Flood Watch remains in
effect through 4 AM.

Rain is progged to exit the area early Friday morning with dry time
through the majority of the day. Similar to the past few days, the
environment becomes uncapped by Friday afternoon and isolated storms
could develop. However, a lack of large-scale ascent should limit
coverage and CAMs are generally void of convection until late
afternoon and into the evening when a surface front/trough sags into
southern Nebraska. While guidance varies in location of this
boundary, they have shifted farther north with convection developing
in Nebraska along the nose of the low-level jet. This leads to less
certainty in these storms impacting the forecast area as steering
flow should push storms east-southeast. If storms do impact the
area, they could produce wind gusts of 60 MPH and hail up to quarter
size. High PWATs could lead to locally heavy rainfall as well.

Another break in precipitation appears likely Saturday before the
closed upper low lifts northeast Saturday night into Sunday. Showers
and storms build back into the area and the environment again favors
high rainfall rates with PWATs above the 90th percentile of
climatology. The good news is the best signal for heavy rainfall is
across southeast and east central Kansas which have missed out on
the bulk of rain over the past few days. The NBM mean shows 1-1.5"
of rain across east central Kansas, with the 75th percentile of 2-
2.5".

Conditions dry out for the beginning of next week as ridging builds
overhead. While strength of this ridge varies among guidance, this
ridge brings summer-like heat and humidity. Heat indices of 100+
degrees are appearing more likely beginning Tuesday and continuing
into the middle of next. There could be a couple of waves that ride
the ridge and produce showers/storms, but predictability is low
this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Scattered storms are developing near KMHK, but coverage and direct
impacts to this terminal remain uncertain. Maintained a PROB30 group
for now. CIGs should be mainly low-end VFR, but could drop to MVFR
briefly this afternoon. Better chances for storms come this evening,
especially at KMHK. Kept a PROB30 group going at KTOP/KFOE with
a mention of VCTS at KMHK for the most likely timing of this
convection. Winds remain southerly around 10 kts with gusts of
20kts through the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan