090
FXUS63 KTOP 242005
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
205 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow slowly ending tonight into Sunday morning. Heaviest
  additional amounts southeast of Interstate 35 with 2-3 additional inches
  likely.

- Wind chills still very cold through Monday morning.

- Dry conditions beyond Sunday with modifying temperatures for the
  middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

West-southwest flow aloft over northeast to east low-level flow
continues to bring moderately-deep though not particularly
strong isentropic upglide over the region, with sufficient moisture
for periods of light snow. Any particular band does not last very
long in any one locations though western into central areas have
seen the most consistent snows so far. Forecast soundings show the
bulk of the sounding with temperatures in the dendritic grown zone
below the area of better lift, so extreme snow ratios may be hard to
realize despite very cold surface temps. Models are in good
agreement in veering winds in the middle to lower layers for
decreasing lift of this nature this evening to the predawn of
Sunday. The upper wave making fast progress from northern Mexico
into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight brings an 850mb low across
Arkansas which should bring some more persistent snow across
southeastern portions of Kansas and will continue with higher
snowfall expectations into east-central Kansas into early Sunday
morning. Additional snowfall amounts for tonight and Sunday look to
be in the 1" to 3" range with the most in the southeast.

Skies should clear somewhat Sunday though another wave diving south
along the Rockies in the return of northwest flow brings cloud this
far east Sunday night which may keep record low temps in check
though what little wind remains should bring apparent temps below
-15 for most locations again. Southwest surface winds return Monday
and will keep wind chills on the cold side despite air temps 5-10F
warmer than Sunday.

Temperatures modify a bit into the midweek with some additional
shots of cooler air working in later in the week, with the next
more notable one likely around Thursday. Precipitation chances remain
low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Bands of light snow continue to move through the region. This
should continue for next several hours before shifting
southeast. Have slowed down the improving trend a bit at this
point based on latest trends. VFR condition look likely by 12Z
as drier air works in.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 205 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

            Record Low Temperature Jan 26  Forecast Low
Topeka       -10, set in 1904                  -7
Concordia    -10, set in 1902 and 1904         -7

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012.
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage
CLIMATE...Poage