577
FXUS63 KTOP 242305
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
605 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (15-25%) for a pop-up shower or storm this
  evening.

- Hazardous heat quickly builds in Saturday and Sunday, likely
continuing Monday and possibly Tuesday. Heat headlines in place
each day for heat indices 105-113.

- Slight cooling trend likely by the middle of next week, but
staying hot in general. Pattern suggests a few brief rain chances,
but low confidence in any particular day or time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Rain continues to exit east this afternoon, with just a few
lingering showers east of I-35. The associated clouds and rain-
cooled air will help keep temperatures in the 80s today, with the
warmest temperatures where skies have already cleared across north-
central KS. As WAA strengthens this evening, still could see a brief
shower or storm pop-up across far eastern KS. This has been hinted
at with some recent CAM guidance, and seems plausible given the
moist airmass. A veering wind profile leading to 30 kts of effective
shear could support some brief storm organization, and perhaps some
very localized gusty winds. But with subsidence and poor mid-level
lapse rates, the most likely scenario is for little more than a
rumble of thunder.

Attention for the rest of the forecast period turns to heat. An
upper high quickly builds over the High Plains tonight into
tomorrow, with 500 mb heights approaching 600 dam. It then stays
parked across the region into early next week. This is a classic
pattern for hazardous heat and humidity. As usual, guidance has
different depictions of how deeply we mix. But given the recent
rainfall and current mid/upper 70s dewpoints across eastern OK,
there is much more confidence in the more humid and less deeply
mixed guidance. (Can almost immediately discount the GFS and its
typical very hot/dry overmixing bias.) This would support high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s Saturday and Sunday, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Resulting heat indices should
reach or exceed 105 area-wide. Have thus gone with a Heat Advisory
for most of the area, with a small Extreme Heat Warning over east-
central KS where confidence in 110+ heat indices is greatest. This
warning may need to be extended northwestward.

Kept the Extreme Heat Watch in place for Monday and Tuesday, as
confidence in the hazardous heat gradually decreases with time.
Monday in all likelihood will again see heat indices 105-113, but
there are a few hints in guidance that convection could develop over
eastern Nebraska Sunday night and keep some clouds around into the
day Monday. So will refrain from going with a heat warning until
there`s better confidence that won`t happen. By Tuesday, more
guidance pushes a boundary southward into the area as a shortwave
drops southeast over the Great Lakes. Clouds and lingering showers
could also be present with this. So confidence is even lower with
heat indices 105+ Tuesday through Thursday, especially with
northeastern extent across the area. But even with a slight
cooldown, conditions should stay hot as the upper ridge never gets
too far to our west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Intermittent MVFR cigs are working their way across eastern
Kansas currently and should exit the area over the next couple
of hours, leaving VFR conditions through the remainder of the
period. There could be some fog overnight, but highest chances
are northwest of TAF sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.
Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday evening
for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 9 PM CDT Sunday for
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Flanagan