928
FXUS63 KTOP 101737
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1137 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures continue into the weekend with highs in
  the 50s and lows in the 30s.

- Precipitation chances increase late Friday through Saturday,
  but uncertainty in precipitation chances/amounts remains high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The forecast area is wedged between a northern and southern stream
shortwave early this morning, with the northern wave pushing a cold
front into the area. North winds gusting at 25-35 MPH have been
observed behind the front which continue to march across the area
this morning, advancing through the entire area by 8-9 AM. North
winds usher in colder air for today after the record-breaking
temperatures observed yesterday. Highs will be 20-25 degrees cooler
than yesterday, but still above-normal in the 50s. Winds gradually
decrease through the day and become light this evening and overnight
as surface ridging builds in. Light winds and mostly clear skies
will allow for temperatures to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s.

Zonal flow persists through Thursday, keeping dry conditions in
place with highs holding in the 50s. A weak perturbation in the flow
tries to generate some light precipitation on Thursday, but abundant
low-level dry air is likely to keep the passage of this wave dry.
Southwest flow returns on Friday as a closed low ejects east across
the southern Plains. Guidance still differs in track and intensity
of this feature. Notably, the ENS and GEFS members show a
farther north track and higher chances for precipitation than
their deterministic counterparts. The NBM highlights this
uncertainty; the 25th percentile for rainfall is zero for areas
north of Interstate 70 with a few tenths south of I-35 while the
75th percentile has a widespread 1-2" across the area. With warm
temperatures in place, the potential for any wintry precipitation
is very low (<15%). Southerly low-level flow strengthens Monday
into Tuesday as a mid-level ridge builds overhead, favoring
even warmer temperatures with highs in the 60s and potentially
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Continued VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds
relax into sunset this evening and taper off into the overnight
becoming calm. Mid-level clouds increase as moisture streams
overhead from the WSW into the last half of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Drake