415
FXUS63 KTOP 040440
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1040 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds into tonight.

- Mainly dry with near-normal temperatures for the remainder of the
  forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Precipitation was slowly ending over the area this afternoon as the
upper low makes northeast progress out of the state. Plenty of cloud
and northwest winds behind it and this should be the rule through at
least the evening with some falling temps likely this afternoon on
reasonable cold-air advection. A modest blocking regime aloft pushes
the low on north tonight into Wednesday with northwest winds
continuing for a cooler day. Weakening upper energy from the west
splits under a modest high to its north and moves east into the
southern and central Plains Wednesday night into Thursday. This
brings modest precipitation chances to the local area with an 80-90
percent chance of dry conditions remaining. The split upper flow
pattern continues into early next week with rather benign conditions
and near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Low stratus and mist linger across the terminals early in the
period as the system slowly exits to the east, with the drier
air working in from the west still a few hours from arriving.
Ceilings hold around MVFR overnight, then gradually lift and
scatter out during the morning as low-level dry air continues
to advance. The main change this update is the improving trend,
though confidence in the timing of ceilings scattering out is
low and the deck could hold on into the early afternoon.
Westerly winds ease through the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Drake