075
FXUS63 KTOP 301855
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
155 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered showers continue to impact northeast KS this afternoon.

-Thunderstorms are expected to move in from southern Nebraska
 tonight. A few strong wind gusts are possible with storms.

-Cooler and breezy conditions occur Friday/Saturday.

-Temperatures then warm slightly into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

At midday, the morning round of rain is exiting to the east while
another batch of scattered showers continues to develop and expand
across the western CWA while the remnants of an MCV slowly moves
through central KS. That second round will progress eastward and out
of the area by this evening. In the meantime, an H5 trough is digging
over eastern MT into the High Plains of the Dakotas. That trough and
an associated surface low will progress southeast into the heart of
the Midwest tomorrow. Thunderstorms still look to develop ahead of
the surface cold front this evening in southern SD and northern NE.
Most CAMs show those storms entering north-central KS around midnight
and advancing southeast across the CWA tonight. The overall threat
for severe weather still looks fairly limited due to increasing CIN
and waning instability. However, a few strong winds gusts could
occur, especially early in the event over north-central KS.

Showers and storms exit to the east Friday morning as winds shift to
the northwest. The pressure gradient on the back side of a deepening
surface low over IA will make for a breezy afternoon, especially in
north-central and far northern KS where winds could gust 30 to 35
mph. Temperatures will mainly be in the 80s but dew points will stay
in the 70s across eastern KS. North winds remain breezy Saturday as
the surface low pivots east of the area, but higher pressure will
bring in a cooler and drier air mass. Highs should top out in the low
80s and dew points are expected to be about ten degrees cooler than
Friday afternoon -- a noticeable improvement!

Looking longer term, conditions stay dry through at least next
Tuesday with a lack of any storm systems moving across the central
US. High temperatures increase slightly each day beyond Saturday as
the surface ridge moderates and moves eastward. Highs will likely be
back in the 90s by the middle of next week with humidity also
increasing into the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The morning round of rain is exiting to the east, but scattered
showers have been developing again in central KS. Those could impact
airports early this period so have TEMPO/PROB30 for that
possibility. Otherwise, thunderstorms become more likely tonight.
There could be some brief heavy rain and strong winds associated with
storms. Am currently keeping CIGs VFR, but some models indicate the
possibility of IFR/MVFR after storms exit for a few hours. Winds
then shift to the northwest behind a cold front Friday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey