296
FXUS63 KTOP 071705
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1205 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms early this morning around the Flint Hills gradually weaken
and clear by mid-day. Marginal threat for wind/hail, but locally
heavy rain with isolated flash flooding is the main hazard.

- Warmth builds this weekend into early next week, with potential
for heat indices around or above 100 each day.

- A few low rain chances over the next week, especially towards the
Nebraska border, but overall mostly dry until Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage over the past few
hours, particularly along an axis over the Flint Hills. RAP
mesoanalysis suggests this corresponds to the eastern edge of a zone
of 700 mb WAA, which makes sense as forecast soundings suggest
storms will be rooted near 700 mb. Short term guidance keeps this
WAA pattern going until early to mid morning tomorrow, which should
in turn keep storms going through then. Despite moderate elevated
instability, weak effective shear has kept storms thus far sub-
severe. If moisture can locally deepen and storms become rooted
lower to the ground, this could increase effective shear enough to
allow for a few stronger storms with some wind/hail potential. The
main threat though should be locally heavy rainfall and isolated
flash flooding. Areas of 2-3", with very isolated higher pockets,
seem plausible given a persistent focus of ascent for convection
near the Flint Hills. Once the WAA pattern weakens this morning,
expecting things to clear out by mid-day. Lingering clouds through
the afternoon may keep highs in the 80s, but if skies can clear
(especially farther west) temperatures should heat into the low 90s.

A warmer pattern will arrive for the weekend and the first half of
next week as ridging over the Four Corners region expands eastward.
However a fast zonal jet with embedded shortwaves will remain in
place over the Northern Plains, keeping an east-west stationary
boundary somewhere over Nebraska and Iowa. So we`ll need to watch
for any convective systems to our north that can shove some outflow
and/or cloud cover southward into our area. Nevertheless, low-level
winds stay mainly southerly, keeping sticky low/mid 70s dewpoints
around. This should bring heat indices around or above 100 each day,
as long as the aforementioned convection to our north doesn`t play
too large of a role.

By sometime mid-week, indications are for a stronger shortwave to
once again dig deeper troughing over the Great Lakes. This increases
confidence in some sort of cool-down. How much of a cool-down (near
average or below average) would be dependent on the amplitude of the
trough and its associated cold front. Rain and storm chances would
also increase along and north of wherever this front ends up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with southerly wind
generally less than 10 knots and mostly clear sky.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Jones