070
FXUS63 KTOP 301703
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1203 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe storms possible today and tonight, most
likely this evening as storms spread northeast from central Kansas.
Damaging winds the main hazard, along with some large hail.

- Conditional risk for severe storms again Sunday evening. If storms
develop, large hail and damaging winds possible.

- Low precipitation chances linger for much of next week.
Temperatures stay a bit above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

We continue to see a sort of Omega Block pattern in place across the
CONUS this morning. Strong upper ridging remains centered over the
northern Plains and south-central Canada, with two upper lows over
the Northeast and Four Corners Region. The latter upper low will be
the focus for impacts here over the next few days as it slowly lifts
northeast onto the Plains. An initial round of showers and storms
has spread northeast across the area over the past few hours, tied
to the leading edge of 850-700 mb WAA. WAA/isentropic ascent remains
in place throughout the morning, which will likely keep scattered
showers and weak storms around at times. By the afternoon,
increasing instability and ascent from the main upper low may allow
for a few stronger storms to develop. Initially this could be
farther east across the area, tied to any remnant outflow or
differential heating boundaries. But the better chances for any
strong storms looks to be towards the evening hours (6 PM-midnight)
with storms developing across south-central KS and moving northeast
into the CWA. Shear remains weak (~20 kts) but stronger than today,
likely just enough for a few more organized thunderstorms. Damaging
winds (60-70 mph) would be the main hazard with any line of storms
moving in from the southwest, with some hail also possible in any
stronger updraft.

A more conditional strong to severe storm setup remains in place for
Sunday. As the upper low continues lifting northeast across the
Plains, weakening as it does so, mid-level heights will rise across
the region. Synoptic scale subsidence thus limits confidence that
any storms will actually develop. However if any remnant boundaries
can serve as a focus for mesoscale lift, the environment remains
favorable. Shear increases to around 40 kts, with ML CAPE of 3500-
4000 J/kg. So any storm that manages to develop could produce large
hail (~1.75") and damaging winds 60-65 mph, along with a low tornado
threat. Again though, this is dependent on storms actually forming.

Upper ridging will continue to expand across the southern and
central Plains for Monday, staying mostly in place through the rest
of the week. This will keep temperatures on the warmer side of
average, though high pressure over the Great Lakes still looks to
push a weak backdoor cold front into the area by Tuesday. Despite
the upper ridge nearby, some low shower and storm chances may linger
throughout the week along the aforementioned boundary as it stalls
just to our southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Challenging forecast with rounds of convection in the area
continuing at this writing. Enough consistency for a PROB TS mention
very early at TOP and FOE. More robust convection remains to be
anticipated in the 02Z-06Z window which may be followed by some
limiting stratus around 12Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Poage