237
FXUS63 KTOP 140554
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat indices reaching 100 to 115 this afternoon with slightly
  cooler conditions each day through Monday. Excessive Heat Warning
  for most locations through Friday afternoon.

- Storm chances build late this afternoon into this evening in western
  and northern areas with a few severe wind-producing storms
  possible. Small severe storm risks again late Friday and late
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Another MCS traversing locations to the north pushed another outflow
boundary across the area early today but most locations again have
quickly recovered with early afternoon temps in the 90s and
dewpoints in the lower 70s. Objective analysis shows modest surface
low pressure over west-central Kansas which will nudge east over the
next several hours. Convergence near the low and diminishing CIN
should allow for at least isolated storms to form in central Kansas
and spread northeast in the southwest flow aloft. Shear remains
somewhat weak but MLCAPE and DCAPE would support severe downburst
winds into the early evening with a decent low-level jet giving some
support as well. Chances for additional showers and storms remain in
the forecast into the weekend along and behind the front and any
outflow. Severe weather potential is a little more nebulous but
decent mid-level flow and moderate instability will bring some
concern for stronger storms, mainly in the late afternoon and
evening with better MLCAPE and DCAPE develop. Small storm chances
return in the middle to late part of next week as southerly low-
level flow returns under zonal flow aloft.

Heat indices are in the triple digits most places at 19Z and today
could bring the highest such values of this stretch. Over the next
few days, outflow and synoptic boundary locations should slowly push
south through the area for slowly cooling conditions. Confidence in
neither Advisory-level heat in the north Friday nor in the remainder
of the area Saturday to extended the Warnings is not high enough for
any headline changes at this point. It`s not impossible for elevated
heat to linger into Sunday if a drier/slower front works out. Monday
and Tuesday still look the coolest though EPS 850mb temperature
anomalies point to some warming again Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Will keep mention of thunderstorms around MHK for the first few hours
of the period as storms are slow to move to the northeast. Current
thinking is these should track away from the TOP/FOE terminals, but
will continue to monitor for any development further to the east.
Otherwise, winds should pick up from the south mid to late morning
and may become lighter and more variable towards the early evening
hours Friday along a weak boundary. Additional scattered showers and
storms may accompany this, but chances are too low to add mention in
TAFs at this time.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Picha