849
FXUS63 KTOP 021926
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
126 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Strong and severe thunderstorms along with heavy rains late this
 afternoon and evening. The severe risk should exit east of the area
 around or shortly after midnight.

-Cooler temperatures and overall drier weather should prevail after
 Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The intense upper trough is digging and ejecting into the OK/TX
Panhandle. The trough will become more negatively tilted this evening
with intense dynamic lift expected to overspread the area after 21z.
The surface low should drop toward the KS/OK this evening with
severe storms likely to develop across southern Kansas then forming
into a line and racing northeast toward at least some part of the
CWA. Damaging winds with perhaps a squall line mesovortex risk may
develop across the southeast half of the CWA mainly from 4pm through
11pm. Heavy rains will also occur given record PWATs of over 1.5"
again today. Expect areas of 1-2" with some swaths of 3-4" tonight
into early Tuesday. The severe risk should end by midnight exiting to
the east. Additional showers and isolated storms will persist in the
vicinity of the upper low through Tues morning with another half
inch of rain likely on the backside of the upper system before ending
by late in the day.

Another weaker system will shear across the region Weds into Thu
however any precip should be light and limited to the southern half
of the area. The weather looks dry after that through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Difficult forecast to try and time out various VIS and CIG impacts of
what should become a more widespread rain and t-storm event at least
from early afternoon through 05Z across the TAF sites. Expect
prevailing MVFR conditions with a short period of IFR possible due to
visibility in heavy rains especially at TOP/FOE this evening.
Scattered rain with at least MVFR CIGs should persist after midnight
with additional rain expected to develop on the northwest side of the
storm system late tonight into Tues morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Omitt