641
FXUS63 KTOP 141934
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
234 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorm redevelopment possible this afternoon
  from north-central KS to east-central KS. Some could become
  strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds as
  hazards.

- Storm chances continue overnight, mainly south of I-35.

- Mostly dry Sunday afternoon and Monday before storms chances
  increase again Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Some storms
  Tuesday evening could be strong to severe.

- Seasonably warm temps in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast
  today through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a large upper level ridge over
the Desert Southwest, moisture streaming into the northern Rockies
from the Pacific, remnants of a MCS over eastern Oklahoma and broad
troughing over the southeastern US. Closer to northeastern KS,
stratiform rain from the decaying MCS has mostly dissipated with a
weak stalled outflow boundary laid out across east-central KS. While
most convection associated with the aforementioned MCS remains down
in Oklahoma, a weak circulation (likely a residual MCV) is noted
across central and southeastern KS that may help to redevelop storms
over the next few hours. Given 1000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE as noted on
the mesoanalysist page, some updrafts could become strong if storms
are able to redevelop along the stalled outflow boundary. While
shear is minuscule, the presence of the MCV could help to enhance
deep shear and help organize storms a bit more this afternoon. CAMs
have been a bit inconsistent this morning and early afternoon in
where and if storms will redevelop, so confidence is not overly high
that everyone will see storms. That said, if they do, some could
become strong with large hail and damaging winds as the main
hazards. Through this evening and into Sunday morning, lingering
convection across central and southeastern Kansas may be further
helped and strengthened by the nose of the LLJ extending from south-
central KS. The best forcing should stay south of the area, but some
showers and a few thunderstorms may push a bit further north into
the southern portions of the CWA.

Expecting most of the area to stay dry Sunday as the main mid-level
vorticity max pushes southeast of the area with subsidence on the
back side. Some mid and high cloud cover may keep temperatures a bit
cooler, topping out in the 80s; low 80s across east-central KS and
upper 80s across north-central KS. The Euro is continuing to keep
higher PoPs into Sunday evening as another vorticity max advects
into the northern Plains, and brings developed convection south into
northern Kansas. Instability and better forcing should remain north
of the area so not overly sold with this solution, but maintained
slight PoPs to account for this solution.

By Monday and Tuesday, mostly dry conditions can be expected through
early Tuesday afternoon as a long wave trough begins to eject into
the central Rockies. This should deepen a lee cyclone across the
high Plains of Colorado, further increasing moisture advection into
eastern Kansas. The NAM, GFS, EURO and Canadian all have dewpoints
creeping into the low to mid 70s by Tuesday afternoon resulting in
extreme levels of instability across the area (4000+ J/kg). As the
wave inches closer by Tuesday afternoon, deep shear should increase
as well creating an environment ripe for severe weather. There are
still some things that will likely play a large role in what areas
have the highest risk for widespread severe storms. Some energy that
ejects into the plains of Nebraska Monday night ahead of the main
trough axis may help to push an MCS across Nebraska and into far
northern Kansas by Tuesday morning. This will obviously impact
severe parameters across the area Tuesday afternoon if the track of
this shifts further south or if there area any residual boundaries
that reside from a decayed MCS. That said, as the main wave kicks
out across Nebraska Tuesday afternoon and evening, the main forcing
mechanism for storms will be a cold front that sweeps across the
area. Given the parameters previously mentioned, all modes of severe
weather will be expected at this time including very large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

Lingering rain chances will continue across eastern Kansas
Wednesday, but most precipitation should stay east of the area
Wednesday as surface ridging slides into the area by the evening.
Warm and muggy conditions will continue into the weekend with no
glaring set ups for widespread precipitation at this time.
Temperatures each afternoon climb into the upper 80s and low 90s
with lows each morning in the 60s and low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Main aviation hazard will be the chance for pop up thunderstorms
this afternoon at all terminals. Kept mention of a PROB30 group
as confidence in overall location of storm development is low.
Storm chances could continue to impact terminals into this
evening, but highest confidence in storms will be south of the
terminals, so kept out mention at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer