663
FXUS63 KTOP 160820
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
320 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures are forecast today and Monday with highs
mainly in the 80s. Tuesday warms up slightly into the 90s.

- Rain chances return Tuesday night and Wednesday night, though
there remains some uncertainty in exact timing and location of
storms during these time frames.

- Temperatures look near average mid to late week, but this will be
somewhat dependent on storms and lingering cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

MCS is tracking through north central KS early this morning and so
far has remained sub-severe with most wind gust reports coming in
between 40-50mph. The WAA regime with modest shear (25-30 kts)
should be enough to maintain these storms through the overnight, but
think any severe gusts would be localized if they occur at all. The
LLJ being displaced a bit to the southeast plus poor lapse rates
would point against a strengthening trend, and the better DCAPE is
also south of the sfc front, which is now draped across southern KS.
This main complex of storms should continue to track northeast with
the mean wind into southeast NE by around sunrise. A convectively
induced vort max still looks to hang around the area, and the HRRR
has been hinting at an MCV developing on the back side of the early
morning storms. While each run has had its differences in how robust
any lingering storms could be, the trend has been persistent enough
to warrant keeping low-end PoPs in the forecast through the
afternoon hours. Subsidence behind the vort max should eventually
take over by late afternoon and end rain chances. Wherever storms
persist, that could lead to even cooler temperatures than forecast,
but overall expect highs to be in the 80s now that we are behind the
sfc front. Monday looks mainly dry with high pressure in the area
and highs once again in the 80s.

For the early and especially middle part of next week, the upper
pattern shows the ridge pushed just to our south with an amplified
trough moving across Canada and through the Hudson Bay area. This
eventually transitions us to northwest flow aloft with embedded
perturbations bringing additional rain chances. The NAM appears to
be an outlier with a complex of storms moving north to south through
central KS late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The
forecast has low PoPs in our western zones during this time frame,
but have low confidence in this overall, and the instability axis is
west of our area as well. Late Tuesday night seems to be the next
best chance for storms (30-60%), mainly north of I-70. Parameters
could support a few severe storms, although depending on where
storms track we could be on the southern edge of the main threat.
Another wave brings another chance of storms (20-40%) Wednesday
night, although those details will be easier to discern once we see
what setup we`re left with after the previous round.

Temperatures are forecast in the 80s to low 90s for the second half
of the week, but as has been iterated in previous forecasts, the
range widens in the ensembles owing to uncertainty related to timing
and placement of storms, as well as a frontal boundary nearby. The
upper ridge to our southwest builds by the end of the week, which
may lead to a warming trend into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Thunderstorms in the first few hours of this period are the main
aviation concern with this forecast. Have maintained VCTS at MHK for
ongoing TS, and will also monitor an incoming cluster of storms that
is on track to impact north central KS. These may track just north of
terminals, with MHK being a bit more likely to be impacted than
TOP/FOE, so have maintained PROB30 mentions as well. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are forecast outside of TS with winds staying light from
the north to northeast Sunday behind the front.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha