134
FXUS63 KTOP 051141
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
641 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers move through the area today with highest chances (30-70%)
focused south of I-70.

- Much cooler today, then a gradual warm-up follows into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

The surface pattern as of 08Z consists of a low pressure system
centered over the TX/OK panhandles and high pressure over the
northern Rockies. Cold front has passed south of the area with CAA
in progress. The upper air pattern remains dominated by the strong
low over Ontario, resulting in cyclonic flow across much of the
northern and eastern CONUS. Ridging is noted over the far western
CONUS.

Showers and thunderstorms are still well west of the area in
southwestern KS with stratiform rain extending into central KS. Mid-
level frontogenesis should strengthen into eastern KS later this
morning, helping the showers to extend east during that time.
Forecast soundings indicate the profile struggles to saturate much
below 750mb, however, so this dry air will probably keep rain
amounts light and limit how much will reach the ground. CAMs
generally show areas along and south of I-70 are most favored to see
rain, with a few solutions keeping rain as far south as I-35. Have
reflected this in the PoP and QPF forecast. Amounts look to be under
a quarter inch for the most part, as ensemble data suggests you have
to get to the southern edge of the forecast area before it looks
likely to exceed that amount. Otherwise, expect the cooler air mass
and cloud cover to keep temperatures in the 60s this afternoon, with
lowest temperatures further south where rain chances remain highest
through the afternoon. May need to watch for fog formation overnight
into Saturday morning with clearing skies, nearly calm winds, and
lows near crossover temperatures.

Surface high pressure slowly moves east through the weekend, leading
to plenty of sunshine and highs in the 70s. The aforementioned upper
ridge slides east into early next week, but looks to weaken as it
does so with a weak perturbation bringing our next potential rain
chance Monday night into Tuesday morning. There are some slight
differences in timing and placement of that wave as is typically the
case 4-5 days out. From there, the ridge looks to amplify over the
central US mid-week, leading to warming temperatures and a return to
closer to average conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

VFR conditions are forecast. Our 12z sounding indicates plenty
of dry air exists in the low levels, but some brief light rain
may reach the ground for a time this morning. Have kept the
PROB30 group during the time period when this is most likely to
occur. Otherwise, expect light northwest winds this morning to
back towards the west and southwest late this afternoon with
skies clearing later into the night. May need to watch the
potential for fog formation late this period with the clearing
skies and very light winds, but confidence in impacts isn`t high
enough yet for inclusion.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Record lowest maximum temperatures for September 5 (today):

Topeka -- 65 degrees, set in 1905; forecast -- 66 degrees.
Concordia -- 59 degrees, set in 1905; forecast -- 68 degrees.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Poage