944
FXUS63 KTOP 072322
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
622 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until Tuesday
  evening. Afternoon heat index values will reach 100-108
  degrees again on Tuesday.

- A cold front will move slowly through the area Tuesday evening
  through Wednesday night bringing chances for showers and storms
  along with some relief from the excessive heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A weak wave evident in the water vapor loop was dropping south across
MO/AR and this has caused sfc winds to back to the ESE across the
eastern half of the CWA where dewpoints have remains around 70. Weak
sfc convergence appears to be generating a agitated cu field south of
Lyon County this afternoon and with an uncapped atmosphere after 3pm
it appears that isolated convection could develop at least for a few
hours before sunset south of Topeka. Dry conditions should prevail
after sunset with another very warm Sept night in store.

On Tuesday, the low level thermal ridge will be drawn northeast
across the region in advance of the sfc front with another very hot
day expected with highs around 100 and HI again in the 100-109 range.
As a result we will keep the heat warning in place through tomorrow.
Given instability along the boundary tomorrow afternoon there should
be scattered storms along the front which could impact north central
KS during the afternoon and evening with a wind and marginal hail
risk. Additional elevated storms should form overnight into early
Weds just north of the boundary so expect scattered storm potential
to persist Tues night through Weds as the front sags southward across
the area. No plans to extend any heat headlines for Weds at this
point given uncertainty of frontal position and clouds/precip impacts
on temps.

The area may see several chances for storms in the Weds night through
Saturday period with stronger 500mb flow and LLJ/WAA nighttime
forcing especially Fri into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions persist. Winds should stay light from the southeast
through the night tonight, then veer slightly to the SSW by Tuesday
morning and pick up with gusts around 20 kts at times through the
day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 8  Topeka     78, set in 1983           74
 Concordia  77, set in 1947 & 1983    78

Record high temperature information:

September 8  Topeka     104, set in 2013          101
 Concordia  102, set in 2013          101

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage