162
FXUS63 KTOP 011121
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
621 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch continues with one last round of heavy rain expected
  today. Widespread additional amounts of 0.5" to 1.5", isolated 3"
  amounts.

- Dry after tonight. Cool temperatures for the weekend then
gradually warming into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Our deep upper low responsible for this very active and rainy
pattern continues move east across the southern High Plains,
steadily weakening as it does. At the surface, low pressure is over
southwest KS, beginning to drop southeast as a cold front pushes
into north-central KS. We continue to see heavy showers redevelop
along and behind this frontal boundary. Mentioned in yesterday`s
discussion that Tuesday evening`s sounding at KTOP showed 2.05" of
PWAT, tied for second highest on record for any sounding after
September 25. Well Wednesday evening`s sounding took that up a notch
with 2.22" of PWAT, highest on record after 9/25. Very telling for
how efficient some of these storms have been at producing rain. Many
places across northern KS from Sabetha to Concordia have already
seen 2.5-5" of rain over the past 36 hours.

As the front pushes farther southeast throughout the day, expecting
additional showers and weak thunderstorms to develop along and
behind the boundary. Similar to the past couple days, the high
moisture and repeated generation of convection may result in locally
heavy rain, including areas of east-central KS that haven`t seen
quite as much yet. Expecting an additional 0.5 to 1.5" for most
places, with isolated totals of around 3". The front looks to fully
clear the area by 0z, allowing rain coverage and intensity to
steadily wane over the evening as brisk northeast winds advect drier
air southwards.

The remainder of the forecast period looks a beautiful and quiet
stretch of October weather as northwesterly flow persists across the
Central Plains. On the periphery of strong Canadian high pressure,
strong surface ridging moves across our area Friday into early
Saturday and again Sunday into early Monday. This will keep
temperatures a bit cooler than average through Monday. Mostly clear
skies will allow highs to climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s each
day, with crisp overnight lows in the 40s to low 50s. Does look like
we`ll see a bit of a warming trend for the middle part of next week
as upper ridging strengthens over the central Rockies, but dry
weather should persist.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Scattered showers will continue this morning and afternoon
before tapering off during the evening. Best chance for some heavier
showers and thunderstorms looks to be in the afternoon to early
evening hours. Ceilings have come down to MVFR within the past hour
as the front approaches, and guidance indicates this should mostly
stick around through the day before scattering out late this
evening. Winds are beginning to turn more northerly as the front
approaches, and should pick up to 10-15 kts with higher gusts by the
afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese