626
FXUS63 KTOP 272330
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and Humid pattern continues into the weekend with small
chances for thunderstorms.

- Strong to severe storms possible Sunday evening across northern
Kansas along a cold front. Damaging winds, small hail and locally
heavy rainfall will be the main hazards.

- Slightly cooler and less humid conditions build in Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Another hot and humid day continues this afternoon as areas across
eastern Kansas have climbed into the upper 80s/low 90s with low 70
degree dewpoints. The overall synoptic pattern shows a weak 700-500
mb wave over central/eastern Kansas, the main jet stream pushed
north across the PNW and Great Lakes region, and a large Bermuda
High settled near the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Lingering thunderstorms
from the weak wave over central/eastern Kansas have pushed into
western Missouri. A bit further east across the TOP CWA, an uncapped
airmass is developing with MLCAPE approaching 2000-2500 J/kg. With
some very weak and diffuse forcing across the area; some 700 mb
confluence around the TOP/LWC area, and some surface directional and
weak speed convergence, cannot rule out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm to develop this afternoon. Given the large energy
available, some updrafts could become strong enough to support some
small hail and some gusty downdraft winds; some possibly marginally
severe. That said, deep shear is weak (~15 knots) and storm
development is not overly likely due to weak forcing so most areas
should stay dry today. If some can, the area most suited for storm
development would be from a 50 mile wide line from LWC to MHK.

Similar conditions will exist Saturday and Sunday with minimal
changes to the synoptic pattern taking shape. Expect temperatures to
once again climb into the low 90s with humid afternoon conditions.
Saturday afternoon could also see another small chance for an
isolated pop-up storm to occur if enough localized forcing can set
up. Overall confidence in storms to occur is low, but best chances
would remain across east-central KS. Overnight Saturday night into
early Sunday morning, low-level forcing should increase across
eastern Kansas within a nocturnal LLJ. Scattered convection should
develop given the ample moisture and low level lift, but should
remain single-cellular in nature given lack of deep shear.

By Sunday evening, a shortwave moving off the high Nebraska Plains
should increase storm chances across northern portions of the area.
Ahead of this system, lee cyclogenesis should occur across western
Kansas, increasing low-level flow across the eastern part of the
state ahead of a deepening surface trough. By the evening, the
surface trough and associated cold front is expected to push south
across the area, generating a line of convection. Given potential
environmental parameters of 4000+ J/kg of CAPE, and 15-30 knots of
deep shear, initial storms may quickly become severe, mainly posing
a damaging wind threat. A lingering MCS moving south through the
overnight may raise flooding concerns, especially with PWATs near
1.5-2 inches. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming
forecast periods to nail down timing and location for Sunday nights
severe risk.

Slightly cooler temperatures and less humid conditions build in
behind the front for Monday through Wednesday as highs top out in
the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints hanging in the low to mid 60s.
Widespread precipitation chances remain low with most prominent
upper level systems staying south of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

There were a few showers 10 miles northwest of the KTOP
terminal but these showers should dissipate towards sunset.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Gargan