866
FXUS63 KTOP 071658
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1158 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are expected tonight with the potential for damaging
  winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall.

- Storm chances continue on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night
  with locally heavy rainfall.

- Small precipitation chances much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery at 0730Z shows a mid level shortwave
trough moving across the Rockies with a general northwest flow
across the Plains. A low level jet was noted across the western high
Plains this morning. Higher dew points in the 60s were observed
across southern Kansas into Oklahoma at 07Z this morning.

For today, warm advection showers and storms look to develop within
a warm advection regime by early afternoon as the low level jet
increases across central and then eastern Kansas. The above
mentioned shortwave will move southeast across the central Plains
this afternoon and evening, moving off to the southeast after 06Z.
Low level moisture will increase through the day and into the
evening hours ahead of the wave. Moisture convergence along the
frontal boundary within a theta-e axis that develops on the nose of
the jet with precipitable water values increasing to around two
inches across northeast Kansas this evening. Models continue to
point to scattered convection this afternoon across Nebraska forming
into a line or a linear MCS and then propagating southeast across
north central and northeast Kansas this evening. Ample shear and
instability will be present for severe storms with damaging winds
and large hail along with heavy rainfall possible. The storm chances
will decrease after midnight as the line and the mid level shortwave
move off to the east.

Saturday a  frontal boundary is forecast to move south through the
day and then stall across southern Kansas. Minor PV anomalies may
move through the westerly flow through the day and into the evening
hours. Convergence along the front increases Saturday afternoon and
evening with convection developing along the boundary. Isolated
severe storms will be possible with large hail and damaging winds.
An east to west theta-e maximum is forecast across southern Kansas
with precipitable water values increasing to around two inches once
again. Moisture transport increases as well through the evening with
parts of east central and southern Kansas within a zone of
convergence in the 925mb-850mb layer. This will lead to heavy
rainfall once again along with high precipitation efficiency of up
to 2 inches an hours possible.

Models keep precipitation chances low for much of next work week and
differences in solutions lean toward a lower (less than 20%) forecast
for the week. A cooler northwest flow along with a surface high
pressure will keep highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s for Monday
and Tuesday, then warming back into the 80s and 90s for the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist until convection develops
this evening. Timing the arrival and departure of TS remains
uncertain with some potential for isolated development before
an MCS forms. A majority of guidance is showing the likely
window for the MCS to impact the terminals between 03Z and 08Z.
Conditions could be restricted with the TS with winds and
visibilities most likely to be a problem. Will try to be a
little more detailed with the forecast but further refinement is
likely.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Wolters