


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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091 FXUS63 KTOP 101134 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 634 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms move through far eastern KS this morning. - Warm and mainly sunny conditions follow from this afternoon through the weekend. - Relatively cooler temperatures arrive next work week with small rain chances (20-30%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 435 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 The upper level pattern still depicts a ridge influencing much of the southern and central CONUS, with a small low moving through Ontario and a larger low spinning off the Pacific coast. At the surface, an area of low pressure is noted in MN with an associated cold front draped across NE. The LLJ is bringing the strongest lift and WAA into southern IA and northern MO, which is where the most widespread thunderstorms have been the last few hours. So far our area has only been clipped by an isolated shower/weak storm in Brown County. The prime area of isentropic lift will continue to push south through MO this morning, and may extend far enough west to impact far eastern parts of the area for a brief period around 12- 13Z. The FV3 has rain missing the area entirely, but most other CAMs have at least a few isolated showers/storms in our area for a few hours this morning. The weak frontal boundary is progged to move south throughout the day, but will do little in terms of sensible weather changes. Temperatures still look warm with highs in the 80s for most, with the upper ridge axis nearby. A subtle wave rounding the ridge looks to pass northwest of the area late tonight into Saturday morning, bringing mid to high clouds during that time but keeping us out of the path of any rain chances. Far northeast KS may stay in the 70s where clouds linger longer while most everyone else sees highs in the 80s once again. Sunday is the warmest day ahead, as a shortwave advancing across the northern Rockies induces a lee sfc trough and a tight pressure gradient over us. This will enhance low-level southerly flow and help to boost temperatures to the 80s area-wide. A cold front is expected to move through the area late Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing the next best rain chance (20-30%). Most of this looks to be post- frontal with limited instability to work with, and rain amounts look light. Forecast confidence dwindles for most of next week due to low predictability in the exact placement in embedded shortwaves rounding the upper ridge as it gets pushed south. The most recent NBM has backed off somewhat on PoPs Tuesday onward, but temperature ranges are still large, indicative of lower confidence in the forecast. Think rain chances, albeit small, are still a reasonable possibility until it becomes clearer where those waves will travel. For now, expect a cooldown Monday behind the front with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and perhaps a slight warmup mid to late week pending clouds and precip. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 What was already a short window of opportunity for any showers to impact TOP/FOE this morning is continuing to dwindle, with most precip staying well east in MO. There is a narrow band of MVFR stratus along the weak frontal boundary upstream, currently in southeast NE. Guidance has this scattering out before it can make it to terminals, though there could be a few brief clouds around 2-3 kft with fropa. Otherwise, expect winds to turn northerly behind the front around 17-18Z and slowly turn to the northeast through this afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha