964
FXUS63 KTOP 030722
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
222 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is now in effect through Saturday evening with
  heat indices of around 100 to 106 degrees each afternoon.

- Additional advisory days beyond Saturday remain possible.

- A few showers are possible over north central Kansas this
  morning. Otherwise dry into the weekend.

- The pattern finally changes late next week with the first real
  rain chances and near normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The 00Z RAOB data show the H5 ridge holding over the southern and
central Plains with weak flow directly overhead and southwest flow
displaced over the Intermountain West into the northern Rockies.
The Pacific Northwest trough and associated upper low remain the
primary features of consequence upstream, with tropical moisture
remaining along the Gulf coast. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
boundary sits north of the area in Nebraska with lee troughing to
the west, mainly over central into western Kansas. The entire CWA
remains under the heat dome once again today. On Wednesday, heat
indices touched the 103 to 106 range around midday before deep
mixing scoured afternoon dewpoints into the low 60s, trimming heat
indices back toward the air temperature by late afternoon. The NBM
continues to run both too cool on highs and too moist on afternoon
dewpoints. This has been taken into account for this forecast
cycle as well.

Early this morning, weak ascent along the 305 K isentropic surface
over north central Kansas may squeeze out a few showers. Forecast
soundings keep a deep dry layer below cloud bases, so anything
that falls fights subcloud evaporation and coverage stays isolated
at best. Chances hold below 15 percent and end by mid morning,
with most locations staying dry and any measurable rainfall
confined to a few spots.

The heat headline driver remains focused on the dewpoint question
and the depth of adiabatic mixing, and the HREF ensemble members
suggest this as well. Thursday afternoon dewpoint spread at Topeka
runs from near 60 in the drier members to near 70 in the moister
ones, and that range is the difference between heat indices near
100 and heat indices in the middle 100s. The drier solutions have
verified each afternoon by mid afternoon, though not before heat
indices reached advisory criteria around midday, and that midday
window is what the Heat Advisory now in effect through Saturday
evening covers. Beyond Saturday, southerly flow persists and the
ensemble mean keeps afternoon dewpoints in the middle 60s with H85
temperatures holding in the middle 20s C, so Sunday and Labor Day
sit on the advisory fence as well. If the deeper mixing keeps
verifying, criteria likely remain marginal; if the moistening
trend wins, an extension through the full weekend will likely win
out. Either way the heat itself is slow to recede: highs in the
upper 90s to near 100, warmest north central where mixing depths
are deepest, with overnight lows in the middle and upper 70s
keeping record warm minimums in play through Saturday morning.

The ridge holds through the holiday weekend and into early next
week. Ensemble data suggest the mid level heights over the area
stay elevated with tight member agreement through Tuesday, and WPC
cluster analysis keeps positive height anomalies over the central
US in every cluster into the middle of next week. Slight rain
chances along the Nebraska border early next week most likely
reflect the growing spread rather than an organized signal. The
real change appears to arrive late next week. Ensemble heights
fall sharply around Thursday as the Pacific trough finally ejects
into the Plains, H85 temperatures step down several degrees C at
the same time, and the cluster favoring that evolution is weighted
toward the ECMWF membership. That system may bring the first
meaningful rain chances in two weeks and the first stretch of near
normal temperatures since around the third week of August.
Confidence in the pattern change is increasing slightly based on
the most recent trends; confidence in the exact day remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions through the period with a persistent forecast in place
once again. Winds generally under 10kts during the early morning
hours as the BL remains partially mixed. A weak nocturnal LLJ will be
in place this morning but LLWS conditions appear to be marginal with
turbulence being the primary impact due to a steady increase in wind
speeds through FL020 and only slight directional change expected.
After sunrise, expect deeper mixing again into mid-morning. Gusts
into the low to mid 20kt range into this evening before relaxing
again.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 3  Topeka     77, set in 1939            76
             Concordia  80, set in 1947            79

September 4  Topeka     78, set in 2014            74
 Concordia  79, set in 1954            75

September 5  Topeka     76, set in 1983            75
 Concordia  78, set in 1899            76

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake
CLIMATE...Drake/Poage