010
FXUS63 KTOP 061114
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers ending this morning.

- Warmer and drier conditions build in by the weekend.

- Next chance for widespread storms come Saturday PM along a cold
  front (40-60% chances).

- Much warmer weather is forecast for early next week when parts of
  the area could see highs in the 90s by next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Early this morning, mid-level water vapor imagery showed two
separate waves coming into phase with one another - one over the 4-
corners region and the other in the northern Midwest. This has led
to continued PVA across the central Plains as the mid-level trough
axis pushes across the Rockies. Widespread lift noted ahead of the
wave has lead to scattered rain showers over Kansas where showers
are expected to continue over the next several hours. By the later
morning hours, mid-level lift breaks down as subsidence builds in
from Nebraska and ends shower activity. The remainder of the day
today will remain under the influence of low-level high pressure.
This paired with the cool air mass in place and ample cloud cover
will lead to afternoon temperatures not warming much. Expect highs
this afternoon only topping out in the mid to upper 50s. Clouds
begin to scatter out late this evening in to Thursday morning as the
mid-level trough axis passes to our east. This should lead to
efficient cooling by Thursday morning as lows bottom out in the low
40s and upper 30s. Some spots across north-central KS may approach
the mid to low 30s, but with winds keeping things a bit mixed near
the surface, not overly concerned with a widespread frost developing.

A warming trend continues from Thursday into the weekend as
increasing mid-level heights and WAA boost temperatures back into
the low to mid 70s for Thursday and mid to upper 70s by Friday. Gulf
moisture becomes a bit more open to the Plains by early Friday
morning so some 50 degree dewpoints are expected to push north into
Kansas by Friday evening and into Saturday. The low-level moisture
paired with some weak waves embedded in northwesterly flow could
lead to some thunderstorm activity Friday evening, but better
forcing looks best just to our south and east. A more compact wave
Saturday evening acts to push a boundary through the area returning
widespread chances for rain and storms to the area. There is a
possibility for some storms across the boundary Saturday evening to
be on the stronger side given cooling aloft and decent wind shear,
but confidence is not high in where these parameters will set up.

Dry weather builds back in by Sunday with surface ridging dominating
the region. Mid-level heights are expected to increase through the
early week leading to strong WAA. Some of the warmest air we have
seen in the last month will likely be seen by Tuesday as most areas
see highs top out in the low to mid 90s!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Rain has moved out of the terminals leaving VFR conditions through
the period with light winds at all sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer