164
FXUS63 KTOP 152321
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
621 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures continue today and Thursday before
  temperatures approach triple digits by the weekend and into Monday.

- Isolated to scattered storms will be possible Thursday afternoon
  (15-30%), mainly across far east and east-central KS.

- More seasonable temperatures and precipitation chances build in for
  the remainder of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Early this afternoon a broad upper level ridge axis extended from
eastern SD, southeast across the OH River Valley, and then into the
Middle Atlantic States. An upper low was nearly stationary across
south central TX, producing rounds of thunderstorms and flooding
across central and southern TX. An upper level trough was located
off the Pacific Northwest coast. The main upper jet extended from the
northwest US, northeast into central Canada, then southeast across
eastern Canada and New England. A few minor perturbations were
located along the southern periphery of the upper ridge axis across
the mid and lower MS River Valley.

This afternoon through Thursday:

A few weak mid-level perturbations may move Northwest into
OK/southeast KS, providing enough ascent for isolated showers and
thunderstorms across portions of east central KS during the late
afternoon hours. The best chances will be across the southeast
counties of the CWA. The ARW CAMs show even a chance for isolated
showers farther north across all of east central and northeast KS.
Overall, being on the southern edge of the H5 ridge will provide
synoptic scale subsidence, so even if a pop up shower or storm does
develop they will be pulse storms, or may not even form. Most CAMs
only show 300-800 J/kg of MLCAPE and the effective shear will be
around 10 KTS. So, none of these pop up storms will be severe. There
could be some gusty winds in the vicinity of a storm pulsing down.

Thursday night through Monday:

The extended range models are in agreement expanding the center of
the H5 ridge axis southwest across the central and southern high
Plains, into the central Plains. Under the H5 ridge high
temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 90s. There could
possibly be some 100 degree readings along and south of I-70 Monday
afternoon, with the center of the H5 ridge axis shifting southwest
across KS, If the PBL mixes deeper, then dewpoints may drop into the
mid to upper 60s during the afternoon hours next week, thus our max
heat indices will only be a few degrees higher then the max
temperatures. If dewpoints are a bit higher across east central KS,
then heat indices may rise into the the 105-108 degree range Monday
afternoon.

Monday night through Wednesday:

The extended range models are in fair agreement with retrograding
the H5 ridge axis farther west-southwest across eastern CO/western
KS/north TX. This will cause the mid level flow to become
northwesterly across eastern KS. An amplifying H5 trough across the
eastern US will cause a surface front to push south-southwest across
the CWA on Tuesday. Convergence along the front combined with any
embedded perturbations in the northwest flow may provide enough
ascent for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Tuesday highs ahead of the front will still
reach the mid to upper 90s across the southern half of the CWA, with
lower 90s across the northern counties. Northeast to easterly winds
will cool temperatures a bit on Wednesday, with highs in the upper
80s north to lower 90s south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Winds remain light through the period, turning variable at times
through the night especially, but turn towards the southeast after
daybreak. There could be some shallow ground fog at TOP around
sunrise, but impacts to vis should be brief and intermittent.
Probabilities for isolated showers or thunderstorms at terminals
during the day Thursday are too low for inclusion at TAFs.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Picha